Keorapetse Koko sits on a worn-out couch in her modest home on the outskirts of Gaborone, reflecting on a past that once seemed secure. For nearly two decades, she earned a living cutting and polishing diamonds, a sector that turned Botswana into a beacon of post-independence prosperity. Today, like many of her colleagues, she finds herself unemployed in a country facing profound questions about the sustainability of its once-celebrated economic model.
The discovery of diamonds in 1967 transformed Botswana from one of the world’s poorest nations into Africa’s largest diamond producer by value. This economic turn of fortune underpinned investments in healthcare, education and infrastructure. For years, Botswana avoided the resource curse that plagued many of its peers, maintaining relative political stability and ensuring that diamond revenues were funnelled into national development. The country’s international brand has long rested on the assertion that its diamonds are conflict-free and development-enabling, a position endorsed by major mining entities and reflected in campaigns such as De Beers’ partnership with Botswanan Olympic athlete Letsile Tebogo.
However, recent trends signal an inflection point. Global diamond markets have been disrupted by the accelerated rise of synthetic diamonds, which are now significantly undercutting the price and appeal of their natural counterparts. Lab-grown stones, often marketed as environmentally sustainable and ethically sourced, are increasingly popular among younger consumers. They now constitute nearly 20 percent of the global diamond market, up from just 1 percent a decade ago. These diamonds are predominantly produced in China and India, where mass manufacturing has driven prices down by as much as 80 percent compared to natural stones.
Botswana’s economic dependency on diamonds is now under visible strain. Diamond exports make up approximately 80 percent of the country’s foreign earnings and contribute around a third of government revenues. In 2025, diamond output in Botswana fell by 43 percent during the second quarter, marking the steepest quarterly decline in the country’s mining history, according to its national statistics agency. The World Bank projects that Botswana’s economy will contract by three percent this year, marking a second consecutive year of negative growth.
The government-owned Debswana, a joint venture with mining conglomerate De Beers, has reported that revenues halved in the previous fiscal year. Operations at some mines have been suspended and negotiations are underway regarding state control over De Beers’ regional diamond assets. In a move to protect the future of natural diamonds, Botswana has joined forces with Angola, Namibia, South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo to allocate one percent of annual diamond revenues to a global marketing initiative led by the Natural Diamond Council. This includes the “Real. Rare. Responsible.” campaign, an attempt to position natural diamonds as both unique and ethically sourced.
However, market dynamics continue to shift. In the United States, where a significant share of Botswana’s diamond exports are destined, new tariffs introduced under the Trump administration have further strained exports. A 15 percent tariff now applies to diamonds mined, cut and polished in Botswana. This has compounded existing challenges, leading to increased unemployment, staffing freezes and wage insecurity.
The situation in Botswana reflects broader economic and social currents across Southern Africa. In neighbouring countries where diamond mining plays a similarly significant role, such as Namibia and South Africa, the shift toward synthetic stones is triggering parallel declines in production and job security. The issue extends beyond economics and into cultural identity, governance and regional cooperation. It also underscores a critical question: how do resource-rich African states navigate a global economic order that increasingly renders those very resources obsolete or undesirable?
In response to mounting economic uncertainty, Botswana’s government recently established a sovereign wealth fund aimed at diversifying the national economy. Though details remain limited, the move suggests a strategic shift away from heavy dependence on mineral extraction. Tourism, long associated with the country’s vast elephant population and pristine landscapes, as well as other mining sectors including gold, uranium and silver, are likely to receive renewed attention.
Yet such transitions take time. For former workers like Koko, whose skills are industry-specific, the path forward remains uncertain. “I was the breadwinner in a big family,” she says. “Now I don’t even know how to feed my own.” With no clear avenues for reskilling or reemployment, and mounting financial pressure, her story is emblematic of thousands caught in the economic crosswinds of global market restructuring.
Botswana’s diamond industry was once viewed as a model of how natural resources could fuel national transformation. It avoided many of the pitfalls seen elsewhere in Africa. However, as external markets evolve and internal structures are tested, the country is now confronting the fragile foundations of its success. The human toll is becoming increasingly visible. Policymakers, labour leaders and community members alike are being called upon to redefine what prosperity means in a post-diamond era. This moment challenges Botswana and the region not just to adapt, but to reimagine an economic narrative that is more diversified, inclusive and future-facing.
