Zimbabwe has revised its economic growth forecast for 2024 downwards, citing severe drought conditions as the primary factor. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube announced the revised forecast on Wednesday, attributing the reduction to an El Niño-induced drought that has severely impacted crop yields across the region.
Originally, economic growth for 2024 was forecasted at 3.5% in November, but the new projection has been downgraded to 2%. El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, has led to significant disruptions in global weather patterns, particularly affecting southern Africa.
Zimbabwe, one of the countries hardest hit by the drought, has seen extensive crop failures. Neighbouring countries such as Zambia and Malawi have declared states of disaster due to similar agricultural devastation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also adjusted its growth forecast for Zimbabwe, aligning with the government’s outlook by predicting a fall to 2% growth in 2024, a sharp decline from 5.3% in the previous year.
“We are all downgrading our growth targets for 2024 because of deeper than expected impact on our agriculture, but next year is brighter,” Ncube remarked. He anticipates a robust recovery, with growth expected to rebound to above 5% in 2025.
Agricultural output, particularly maize production, has been significantly affected, with the government forecasting a 72% drop in staple maize production for the 2023/24 season. To mitigate the ensuing food shortage, Zimbabwe expects to import 1.4 million metric tonnes of grain.
In response to the crisis, Zimbabwe recently received $32 million in drought insurance from an African Union agency. The government has also appealed to international donors for additional food aid to alleviate hunger across the nation.
Ncube is scheduled to present the mid-term budget review later this month, where further details and adjustments to economic policies are expected to be outlined.
The current situation underscores the vulnerabilities of Zimbabwe’s economy to climatic changes and highlights the need for comprehensive strategies to bolster resilience against future environmental shocks.
