As Donald Trump looks poised to reclaim the White House, world leaders are bracing for potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy. For Africa, a region of strategic importance due to its resources and its role in the U.S.-China rivalry, the question is whether the continent will secure a meaningful place on Trump’s agenda. With an expected pivot towards a more transactional foreign policy, African leaders may face new challenges in balancing diplomatic relations, trade, and aid considerations under a Trump administration.
During Trump’s first term, Africa received minimal focus beyond Washington’s larger rivalry with Beijing. His administration’s most notable involvement came in the form of rhetorical disparagement, yet some senior officials identified Africa as a critical front in countering China’s growing influence. As Peter Pham, former special envoy to the Sahel, suggests, this strategic lens may persist, particularly concerning projects like the Lobito Corridor, which aims to streamline the export of Congolese and Zambian battery metals — a sector dominated by Chinese interests. Should Trump decide to prioritise the Lobito Corridor, it could signify an alignment with Biden’s policies on infrastructure to counterbalance China’s footprint in Africa.
However, the Trump administration is expected to diverge markedly in areas such as foreign aid. Many within the Republican Party view the current budget as overly generous and misaligned with core American interests. A reduction in U.S. aid to Africa would likely impact a wide range of initiatives, from public health to infrastructure development, leaving African nations potentially seeking alternative partnerships to bridge funding gaps.
Another policy shift could involve the rollback of certain social initiatives established under Biden, particularly in relation to LGBTQ rights. Trump’s administration is likely to curtail support for such policies, a stance that resonates with some African nations but risks alienating rights advocates. In 2023, Uganda was removed from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) due to anti-LGBTQ legislation. Should Trump revive support for regimes with restrictive social policies, it could reconfigure U.S.-Africa relations, benefitting some governments while straining others.
On trade, Trump’s protectionist inclinations are expected to re-emerge, with potential tariff hikes on U.S. imports. For African nations that rely on exports to the U.S., these tariffs could erode market access, compounding economic pressures exacerbated by global inflation and high living costs. Should these trade tensions escalate, they may deepen Africa’s economic challenges, with ripple effects across political stability and public welfare in countries heavily reliant on U.S. trade.
Whether Africa can secure a clear role in Trump’s foreign policy priorities remains uncertain. Trump’s foreign policy is known for its transactional approach, favouring deals that yield immediate American gains. If Africa is to feature more prominently, it will likely be on terms shaped by Washington’s strategic goals, primarily through the lens of countering Chinese influence. For African leaders, navigating Trump’s return to the White House may require deft diplomacy and recalibrated expectations, as they seek to protect both economic interests and geopolitical partnerships in an era where alliances are increasingly fluid.
