The IMF’s latest global economic outlook shows that South Africa is on track to reclaim its crown as Africa’s biggest economy in 2024. However, the continent’s heavyweight still performs far below the biggest markets on the global stage, including those in its own bloc.
On the global stage, two prominent groups are vying for influence: the long-established G7 and the ambitious BRICS+ economies.
The G7, formed in 1975, brings together major industrial democracies—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the USA. They meet annually to coordinate on global economic policy.
As of 2023, the G7 economies represented 26.4% of the world’s GDP and contributed 14.4% to the global GDP growth over the previous decade. Among its members, the G7 includes the USA, which is the largest and most industrialized economy globally.
On the other hand, BRICS, which officially came into being in 2009, originally included Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, with South Africa joining in 2010. By 2024, the group expanded to become BRICS+, welcoming Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE.
This expansion is part of BRICS+’s broader aim to bolster its influence over global economic governance and position itself as a voice for the Global South, offering an alternative to the G7 model.
Both alliances boast members with significant economic clout. For instance, within the BRICS+ bloc, South Africa is on the brink of becoming Africa’s largest economy, while China holds the position of the world’s second-largest economy.
BRICS+ economies have been experiencing rapid growth due to a combination of factors such as large populations, abundant natural resources for export, increasing urbanisation and industrialisation, and government policies to attract investment within the bloc.
However, the growth has not been uniform across all members, with China seeing the biggest boom in growth to make it the second largest economy in the world.
Research from the Hinrich Foundation, a global trade think tank, reveals that the landscape of global trade has been progressively dividing – with BRICS+ and the G7 at the centre of it.
The research shows that countries are shifting to now trade more frequently with their geopolitical allies.
The shift amounts to nearly $270 billion (R4.99 trillion) diverted to trade within blocs in 2023 compared with 2018.
Total South African trade with BRICS increased from R487 billion in 2017 to R702 billion in 2021.
Current GDPs
Looking at live data provided by the International Monetary Foundation, the total GDPs of the G7 countries still greatly outweighs that of BRICS.
International Monetary Fund GDP valuations for April 2024 indicate that the BRICS+ economies have a combined $28.78 trillion GDP. This is equal to the GDP of the USA, who contributes greatly to the G7’s estimated total of $48.68 trillion GDP.
China has the largest GDP out of the BRICS+ nations and has consistently been the largest economy of this bloc.
It is predicted that China’s GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s or early 2030s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century.
While the GDPs of the G7 trump that of the BRICS+ economies, the majority of these developing countries sport GDP growth forecasts above the G7.
Although the growth forecasts for 2024 are generally lower than those of 2023, the BRICS+ countries are still projected to have a substantially higher average growth rate of 3.6% (above the global average of 3.2%), in contrast to the G7 nations, which have an average of 1%.
The current members of BRICS+ are projected to achieve an average GDP growth rate ranging from 189% to 205% by the year 2050, a stark contrast to the G7’s average growth rate of 50%, as reported by Goldman Sachs.
The five BRICS countries overtook the G7 countries in terms of share of the world’s total GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2020. The BRICS+ grouping now hold around 36% of the world’s GDP PPP, compared to 30% held by the G7 countries.
Population size estimates and land size
Looking at population size, the BRICS+ group has a combined population of about 3.6 billion, or 45% of the world’s inhabitants.
This greatly outweighs the G7’s combined 776 million population estimate.
When it comes to land size, the current grouping of the G7 has a land mass of 19.7 million sq km (15.2% of the world), while the newly expanded BRICS + has a landmass of more than double that, at 44.2 million sq km (34.1% of the world).
