The African Union and key multilateral partners have cautioned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East presents a material risk to economic stability across Africa, with potential implications for growth, trade, and household welfare.
In a joint policy brief issued by the African Union, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the African Development Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme, the institutions indicate that the duration and intensity of the conflict will shape the scale of its economic impact. Prolonged disruption to shipping routes, energy flows, and agricultural inputs is expected to weigh on already fragile recovery trajectories across many African economies.
The analysis suggests that if the conflict extends beyond six months, Africa’s aggregate gross domestic product growth in 2026 could decline by approximately 0.2 percentage points. This projection comes at a time when many countries on the continent continue to record growth rates below pre pandemic levels, reflecting constrained fiscal space and persistent structural challenges.
The Middle East remains a significant trade partner for Africa, accounting for roughly 15.8 percent of imports and 10.9 percent of exports. This interdependence underscores the transmission channels through which external shocks are felt. Increased shipping costs, higher insurance premiums, and exchange rate volatility are already contributing to tighter financial conditions in several economies.
The brief highlights the risk of a broader cost of living crisis emerging from these dynamics. Rising fuel prices, coupled with escalating food costs, are likely to affect low income households disproportionately. While energy markets often dominate such discussions, the report draws particular attention to fertiliser supply chains. Disruptions to liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf region may affect the production of ammonia and urea, key inputs for fertiliser, during a critical agricultural period between March and May. This could have knock on effects on crop yields and food availability across multiple regions of the continent.
Food security concerns are especially pronounced in countries where agricultural productivity is closely tied to imported inputs. In such contexts, higher fertiliser prices may translate directly into reduced output and increased market prices, intensifying existing vulnerabilities.
Beyond economic dimensions, the policy brief also reflects on the geopolitical implications of an extended conflict. It notes that shifts in global alignments and competition for influence could intersect with ongoing security challenges in parts of Africa, including Sudan, Somalia, and Libya. These dynamics point to a complex interplay between external developments and internal stability.
In response, the institutions emphasise the importance of strengthening resilience through coordinated policy measures. Priorities include enhancing energy security, preserving fiscal stability, and accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Expanding intra African trade is viewed as a means of reducing exposure to external shocks while fostering more integrated regional value chains.
The brief also calls for the establishment of financial safety nets to protect vulnerable populations and to mitigate the social impact of economic disruptions. Such measures are framed not only as immediate responses but as part of a broader effort to build adaptive capacity within African economies.
While the full trajectory of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain, the assessment reflects a growing recognition among African institutions of the need for proactive and context specific strategies. The emphasis on coordinated continental action signals an approach that situates Africa not merely as a recipient of external shocks, but as an active agent in shaping its economic resilience.
