On November 5, Americans head to the polls for the 2024 presidential election, with voters nationwide choosing between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Both candidates have been locked in a close race, with polling data suggesting a nail-biting finish that could lead to a prolonged vote-counting process and potentially delayed results.
Historically, US election results have sometimes been called within hours of polls closing. However, this year’s tight contest across several battleground states may mean that media outlets and election analysts hold off on projections to ensure accuracy. Recounts and potential legal disputes are expected to add to the complexity, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, where a statewide recount is triggered if the vote margin is within 0.5 percentage points. In 2020, Pennsylvania’s margin was only 1.1 percentage points, setting the stage for close scrutiny again this year.
Election night in the US will see the first polls close at 6 p.m. EST, and the last at 1 a.m. EST, with initial results trickling in soon after. However, seven pivotal swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — will determine the outcome, and each has distinct processes and timelines that could impact the final results. In Georgia, officials expect to report 75% of votes within the first two hours, with North Carolina aiming to finalize results before dawn. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania and Michigan face longer timelines; in Pennsylvania, counting doesn’t begin until the morning of election day, with enough votes to call the state expected only 24 hours later. Michigan officials estimate that a full count won’t be available until late Wednesday. Nevada’s final mail-in votes, postmarked on election day, can be counted until November 9.
With the specter of legal challenges looming, over 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed by Republicans, addressing voter eligibility and mail-in ballot procedures. Any disorder at polling sites could further disrupt vote processing. Yet, some states, like Michigan, have accelerated vote-counting since 2020, and there is a marked reduction in mail-in ballots compared to the pandemic-era election, potentially speeding up the count in certain locations.
The United States’ decentralized voting system means that every ballot undergoes extensive verification, processing, and counting by local officials who strictly adhere to state guidelines. This includes measures for canvassing, or verifying, ballots, ensuring they match active voter counts, and using electronic scanners to tabulate results. State and local observers, including partisan monitors, are expected to oversee this process closely. Each swing state will award a specific number of electoral college votes, which determine the winner, rather than the national popular vote alone. The victor will need at least 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.
In past elections, the speed of results has varied. In 2020, a record-high use of mail-in ballots due to COVID-19 meant a delay until Saturday, November 7, for networks to call the election in favor of Joe Biden. However, in 2016, Donald Trump’s victory was declared shortly after 3 a.m. EST the day after the election. The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore remains the longest-delayed result, with the Florida recount dragging the decision out until December 12, when the US Supreme Court’s ruling cemented Bush’s win.
The stakes are particularly high this year, given the memories of the Capitol riot following the 2020 election. Trump’s refusal to concede, coupled with efforts from allies to delay certification, cast a shadow over this year’s vote. Electoral reforms implemented since then have aimed to prevent a repeat, strengthening restrictions on objections to certified results and clarifying that the vice president cannot unilaterally reject electoral votes. Even so, concerns linger about local or state-level efforts to contest the outcome if the race is tight.
The winning candidate will take the oath of office at the 60th presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025, promising to uphold the US Constitution. As the US and the world wait for results in this consequential election, all eyes are on the swing states and the intricate processes of America’s electoral system, which will ultimately determine the next occupant of the White House.
