European wheat prices have fallen to their lowest levels on record for the current trading contract as a combination of a stronger euro, increased competition from Argentina, and geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe weigh on the market. Analysts say the latest trends in grain markets reveal both the vulnerability and interdependence of global agricultural systems that extend far beyond Europe’s borders.
The March wheat contract on the Paris-based Euronext exchange declined by 0.9 per cent to 186 euros per metric tonne, a record low for this contract. The fall reflects growing concerns that a firm euro is undermining the competitiveness of European exports at a time when Argentina’s record harvest is flooding the market with low-cost wheat.
According to Reuters, Argentine wheat with an 11.5 per cent protein content was trading between 208 and 212 US dollars per tonne free on board (FOB) for January and February shipments, substantially undercutting European suppliers. Russian wheat of equivalent quality was quoted between 224 and 226 dollars per tonne FOB, while French, Ukrainian, and Romanian exports were priced in a similar range of 228 to 231 dollars per tonne.
Traders said the strength of the euro, which recently reached its highest level against the US dollar since September, has increased the cost of European grain in foreign markets. A German commodities trader told Reuters that “heavy export competition, especially from Argentina, is exerting significant downward pressure on prices.”
FranceAgriMer, the French government’s agricultural office, revised its forecast for non-EU French wheat exports for the 2025–2026 season, citing Argentina’s aggressive pricing as a major factor. However, it raised its estimate for intra-European shipments due to heightened feed demand within the bloc.
The European Union’s cumulative soft wheat exports this season are estimated to be about 2 per cent lower than at the same time last year. Data for several key member states, including France, remain incomplete, suggesting the overall decline may be greater once all figures are updated.
Meanwhile, expectations of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have also influenced market sentiment. Negotiations involving US and European diplomats have reportedly made progress, leading to speculation that shipping costs in the Black Sea region could fall if conflict risks diminish. A European futures dealer observed that while a peace accord might not drastically change export volumes, it could “make Black Sea wheat more competitive by lowering freight costs.”
In Poland, domestic mills engaged in end-of-year short covering have pushed up prices for 12.5 per cent protein wheat by about 10 zlotys per tonne to approximately 810 zlotys, or 191.7 euros. Export activity remains brisk, with shipments through the ports of Gdansk and Gdynia including cargoes of 33,000 tonnes each bound for Morocco and undisclosed destinations. Additional vessels have recently departed carrying wheat to Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, underscoring Poland’s increasing role as a supplier to African markets.
African economies remain attentive to these global developments, given their growing reliance on diversified import sources to secure food supply stability. The ongoing shifts in wheat pricing and sourcing highlight how international agricultural markets are closely linked to currency movements, regional politics, and harvest yields across continents. While Europe’s wheat sector confronts intensified competition, African importers may benefit from lower global prices in the near term, offering some relief to nations grappling with high food import bills.
As the global market adjusts to these new dynamics, analysts emphasise that the volatility underscores the need for a more inclusive agricultural dialogue that recognises the interconnectedness of markets from Buenos Aires to Bamako. The story of falling wheat prices in Paris is, at its core, a reminder that global food security is not solely a European or South American issue but a shared concern across hemispheres.
