Thousands of undocumented migrants across South Africa are living in fear as anti immigrant groups prepare nationwide demonstrations, with organisers demanding that all undocumented foreign nationals leave the country ahead of protests scheduled for Tuesday.
While organisers insist the planned marches will be peaceful, growing anxiety has prompted many migrants to seek refuge in temporary camps or make arrangements to return to their home countries, raising concerns about the potential for xenophobic violence in Africa’s most industrialised economy.
The protests come against the backdrop of rising anti immigrant sentiment, worsening unemployment, struggling public services and heightened political tensions ahead of South Africa’s local government elections later this year.
Groups leading the campaign argue that undocumented migrants are placing unbearable pressure on hospitals, schools and employment opportunities while contributing to rising crime. Speaking in June, United South Africa president Musa Hlongwa said many South Africans were frustrated by long queues at public hospitals, competition for school places and jobs, and the perception that foreign nationals were responsible for drug trafficking and other criminal activities.
Those views appear to resonate with a growing portion of the population. Recent surveys suggest hostility towards immigrants has reached its highest level in years.
A survey conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council found that only one in six South Africans would welcome all foreign nationals, while 42% said they would welcome none, a sharp increase from previous years. Afrobarometer also reported that seven in ten South Africans believe immigrants have a negative impact on the economy, while 85% supported reducing or completely halting the arrival of refugees. Separate findings from Ipsos showed that nearly three quarters of respondents expressed no trust in migrants from elsewhere in Africa.
Despite these perceptions, official figures paint a different picture.
Statistics South Africa estimates there were about 3.1 million migrants living in the country in 2023, representing just over 4% of the population. That proportion is significantly lower than in countries such as Britain, Canada and Australia, where migrants account for much larger shares of the population.
Some campaigners dispute the official figures, arguing that undocumented migration is far higher than government estimates suggest. However, researchers note that census methods are designed to count undocumented migrants as well.
Anthony Kaziboni, a senior researcher at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Social Development in Africa, said available evidence does not support claims that South Africa is being overwhelmed by migrants.
“The impression is that there are hordes of people coming into the country, but the data points to the contrary,” he said.
The debate has also extended to crime, another issue frequently raised by anti immigrant groups.
Although South African police do not publish crime statistics based on nationality, justice department figures previously showed that foreign nationals accounted for about 6% of the country’s prison population, with many imprisoned for immigration related offences rather than violent crime.
Migration experts argue that immigrants are generally more law abiding than public perception suggests.
Loren Landau, Professor of Migration and Development at the University of Oxford, said the overwhelming majority of offences committed by migrants involve breaches of immigration laws rather than serious criminal activity.
Economic studies have also challenged claims that migrants take jobs away from South Africans.
According to a World Bank report, every migrant employed in South Africa helps generate roughly two additional jobs through business activity and consumer spending. Researchers say migrants contribute to local economies by renting accommodation, purchasing goods and services and creating demand that supports South African businesses.
Lauren Gilbert, Director of Political Science Data at GeoQuant, said migrant communities often spend most of their income locally, benefiting restaurants, retailers and service providers.
Researchers also dispute claims that undocumented migrants are overwhelming hospitals and schools.
Kaziboni noted that many undocumented migrants deliberately avoid accessing public services because registration could expose their immigration status and lead to deportation. Instead, he argued that South Africa’s struggling healthcare and education systems are primarily the result of years of underinvestment, poor governance and corruption.
“To squarely blame immigrants for a failed healthcare crisis is unjust and unfounded. There is no evidence that supports that,” he said.
South Africa’s immigration debate is rooted in a complex history. During apartheid, migrant labour from across Southern Africa was actively recruited to work in the country’s mines, keeping wages low while weakening organised labour. Today, however, high unemployment, widening inequality and deteriorating public services have fuelled frustration among many citizens searching for someone to blame.
Political analysts warn that migrants have increasingly become convenient targets, particularly during election periods.
With municipal elections expected before the end of the year, immigration is once again emerging as a major political issue. Experts caution that unless leaders address the deeper structural problems affecting the economy, public services and governance, tensions surrounding migration are likely to persist.
For neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe, whose citizens make up one of the largest migrant communities in South Africa, the developments are being closely watched. Many Zimbabweans depend on employment opportunities south of the Limpopo River, while remittances sent home remain a vital source of income for thousands of families.
As the protests approach, authorities face mounting pressure to maintain public order while ensuring that migrants, regardless of their legal status, are protected from violence and intimidation.
