Angola is expected to increase its crude oil exports in March 2026, according to preliminary figures from regional trade sources. A total of 35 cargoes are scheduled to load over the course of the month, representing a notable rise from the 29 shipments slated for February. The projection is based on a preliminary loading schedule reviewed by Reuters and regional oil traders.
This anticipated rise comes amid a broader effort to clear unsold cargoes for February across West Africa. As of earlier this week, approximately 40 cargoes from both Angolan and Nigerian producers remained unallocated. Market participants suggest that clearing these unsold barrels is critical to balancing supply and demand heading into the second quarter of the year.
Despite the increase in March volumes, differentials across West African grades remained stable on Friday, as no fresh offers were publicly disclosed. A trader attributed this pause in activity to a range of upcoming tenders expected from several international buyers, including Pertamina, Sasol and ANCAP. These pending tenders are said to have contributed to a more cautious approach from sellers, who appear to be holding back cargoes in anticipation of favourable outcomes from these state-backed procurement processes.
The few offers that were made available earlier this week illustrate the range of pricing dynamics currently shaping the West African crude market. Nigerian Forcados crude was offered at a premium of $3.00 to dated Brent, while Chad’s Doba crude was listed at a $2.20 premium. Ghana’s TEN blend was comparatively less competitive, offered at a $0.25 discount to dated Brent. These price points reflect both the quality differentials between crude grades and the tactical considerations of sellers responding to limited liquidity in the market.
Market watchers have noted that trading activity in West Africa is undergoing a period of recalibration. Traditional demand centres in Asia and South America continue to diversify their crude supply sources, often balancing West African barrels with Middle Eastern and US grades. In this context, Angola’s ability to raise its scheduled exports could be seen as a sign of resilience in a competitive market, though the long term outlook will depend on the evolving global energy demand landscape.
The implications for African producers such as Angola and Nigeria go beyond immediate sales. These nations are navigating a shifting geopolitical and economic environment in which energy exports remain critical to fiscal revenues, yet also subject to volatile global price dynamics and fluctuating demand from the Global South. Moreover, state-owned enterprises and national energy strategies are increasingly at the forefront of this balancing act, seeking to protect national interests while engaging with global commodity markets.
At the domestic level, firms like Sasol Limited in South Africa continue to play a pivotal role in energy procurement and refining capacity within the region. While Sasol’s shares have recently faced market pressure, declining by over 11 percent this week, the company’s ongoing participation in regional crude tenders underscores its strategic significance in Southern Africa’s energy matrix.
As African energy producers and consumers engage with one another and with global markets, the conversation is evolving beyond extraction and export statistics. It now increasingly encompasses governance, value addition, fiscal policy, and long-term sustainability. The rise in Angola’s March export schedule serves not only as a short-term commercial indicator but also as a point of reflection on how African economies might reimagine their engagement with global energy flows in a way that places African agency at the centre of discourse.
