Maize demand across Southern Africa is projected to remain firm throughout the 2025/2026 marketing year, which began in May in alignment with the 2024/2025 production season. Zimbabwe, despite experiencing a notable recovery in maize output, is expected to remain a net importer due to a persistent supply deficit—an assessment provided by renowned agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).
According to Sihlobo, Zimbabwe was the largest importer of maize in Southern Africa during the 2024/2025 marketing year, accounting for approximately 56% of South Africa’s total maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes. This significant dependency was primarily due to a devastating mid-season drought, which slashed Zimbabwe’s maize output by 60%, leaving the country with a harvest of only 635,000 tonnes—far short of its annual domestic requirement of roughly 2 million tonnes.
However, the 2024/2025 production season has brought some recovery. Based on recent data from the Pretoria-based office of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Zimbabwe’s maize production is now projected at 1.3 million tonnes. This improvement, more than double the prior season’s output, has been driven by more favourable weather conditions and increased planting area. Still, with a shortfall of about 700,000 tonnes remaining, Zimbabwe will continue to rely on imports to meet consumption demands.
South Africa was the dominant source of Zimbabwe’s maize imports in the previous cycle. However, Sihlobo notes a potential shift in trade flows with Zambia poised to re-enter the regional export market. Zambia’s 2024/2025 maize output is projected at 3.66 million tonnes, a significant recovery from the previous season’s 1.5 million tonnes, based on figures from the Zambian government. This growth is similarly attributed to improved rainfall and expansion of cultivated areas.
Zambia, which consumes approximately 2.8 million tonnes of maize domestically, is now positioned to be a net exporter again. This development could introduce greater competition in the regional market and potentially diversify Zimbabwe’s import sources beyond South Africa.
Sihlobo emphasises that the broader impact of these dynamics is significant for regional food security and price stability. Improved harvests across Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa may help stabilise maize prices and ease inflationary pressure on staple foods. Nevertheless, Zimbabwe’s ongoing reliance on imports highlights structural weaknesses in domestic agriculture and underscores the need for strategic investment in climate-resilient farming systems.
The evolving trade flows signal that the 2025/2026 marketing year will be closely monitored by both policy actors and agribusiness stakeholders seeking to navigate the shifting grain landscape in Southern Africa.
