Export earnings across Central Africa came under renewed pressure in the final quarter of 2025, as declining prices for cocoa and hydrocarbons contributed to a broad based fall in the region’s commodity index.
According to data published by the Bank of Central African States, known by its French acronym BEAC, the Composite Commodity Price Index declined by 9.5 per cent between October and December 2025. The index tracks the prices of 20 commodities that account for approximately 90 per cent of total export value within the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, or CEMAC, which comprises Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
The contraction extended a downward movement that began in the second quarter of 2025. BEAC attributed the trend to the simultaneous decline in energy and non energy commodities amid uncertain global macroeconomic conditions and adjustments in supply and demand across key markets.
Agricultural export prices fell by 14.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, a steeper decline than the 10.3 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter. Cocoa, a major source of export revenue for Cameroon and an important cash crop across the Gulf of Guinea, declined by 21.3 per cent over the period. Sugar prices fell by 10.7 per cent, rubber by 6 per cent and cotton by 4.3 per cent.
Cocoa occupies a significant position in regional export baskets and in rural livelihoods. Cameroon is among Africa’s leading cocoa producers, alongside Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. While the latter two are not members of CEMAC, price movements in global cocoa markets have implications that cut across regional economic blocs. International price volatility reflects a combination of weather related supply shifts, speculative activity and evolving demand patterns in Europe and Asia, according to market assessments by the International Cocoa Organization.
Energy markets also reversed course in the final quarter. BEAC reported that energy product prices fell by 6.4 per cent, following a 1.3 per cent increase in the third quarter. The decline was linked to lower crude oil and natural gas prices. Several CEMAC member states, including Gabon, Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea, remain significantly reliant on hydrocarbon exports for fiscal revenue and foreign exchange. Global oil price movements are closely monitored by institutions such as the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which have pointed to demand uncertainty and production adjustments as influencing recent trends.
For CEMAC economies, the concurrent decline in agricultural and energy prices raises concerns about export receipts, current account balances and foreign currency liquidity. The region operates under a common currency regime, with the Central African CFA franc pegged to the euro and guaranteed by the French Treasury. This framework, administered by BEAC, places particular emphasis on maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves to support monetary stability.
The Composite Commodity Price Index serves as an early indicator of the external price environment facing Central African economies. Because commodity exports underpin public finance, infrastructure spending and social programmes, shifts in global prices can have tangible implications for employment, rural incomes and fiscal planning. Analysts note that price cycles are not uncommon in resource dependent economies and that diversification efforts across the continent have sought to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
Across Africa, similar dynamics have underscored debates around value addition, intra African trade and regional integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area, operational under the auspices of the African Union, is frequently cited as a platform through which countries can deepen regional markets and mitigate exposure to commodity price volatility by expanding manufacturing and services trade.
The latest BEAC figures illustrate the structural interplay between global commodity cycles and domestic economic management in Central Africa. While price declines reflect external market conditions rather than domestic production shortfalls, their impact is felt locally in fiscal accounts and in communities whose livelihoods depend on export crops and extractive industries.
As global economic conditions evolve, policymakers within CEMAC will continue to balance monetary stability with the need to sustain growth and social investment. The trajectory of cocoa and energy prices in 2026 will therefore remain central to the region’s external outlook, not only for governments and investors but for households whose incomes are tied to these sectors.
