When Dr Mike Chase, founder of Elephants Without Borders (EWB), steers his small aircraft over Botswana’s northern woodlands, the view from above tells a story that is at once majestic and troubling. Scattered carcasses mark the earth where elephants once roamed, silent indicators of drought, poaching and hunting pressures. Beyond them, herds cast long shadows across the floodplains of Chobe, a region often described as the beating heart of southern Africa’s elephant stronghold.
The latest EWB report co-authored by Chase and conservation scientist Scott Schlossberg challenges prevailing narratives that Botswana is overburdened by elephants. Contrary to official claims of growth, aerial surveys conducted between 2010 and 2022 reveal that northern Botswana’s elephant population has remained stable at around 130,000. These figures contradict long-standing assertions that elephant numbers are increasing and overwhelming local ecosystems.
According to Chase, Botswana’s predicament is not one of excess but of understanding. “We do not have an elephant problem,” he explains. “We have an information problem. Too few rely on evidence, and the science that could guide us is too often left unused.”
Scientific analysis indicates that while population size has remained stable, mortality indicators such as carcass ratios have been rising. Between late 2023 and mid-2025, EWB recorded at least 120 confirmed cases of elephant poaching, the majority involving mature males. The pattern mirrors earlier waves of killings in 2017 and 2018, suggesting a sustained targeting of large bulls prized for their ivory.
Botswana reinstated trophy hunting in 2019, citing rural livelihoods and conflict mitigation as justification. Supporters argue that the annual quota of roughly 430 elephants—around 0.3 percent of the national population—is negligible. Yet the scientific consensus is more nuanced. The removal of older bulls, which constitute only one to three percent of the total population, has disproportionate ecological and genetic effects. These bulls are key breeders, social teachers for younger males, and custodians of migratory knowledge crucial to survival during drought.
Modelling by EWB suggests that continued hunting at current levels could reduce the number of bulls aged 50 and above by half, while diminishing the 30-plus age cohort by a quarter compared with scenarios without hunting. When drought and poaching are factored in, the population pressures intensify further.
Northern Botswana faces increasing climatic stress, with projections indicating that severe drought could occur in up to 40 percent of years by 2080, according to regional climate studies by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL). Drought not only depletes forage and water sources but also heightens human-wildlife tensions as elephants compete with communities for scarce resources. In such years, calf and female mortality increases, narrowing the age pyramid and reducing the number of males that will eventually mature into the large-tusked bulls favoured by both hunters and photographers.
EWB’s findings further suggest that many hunting concessions function as ecological “sink” areas—zones where elephants die faster than they can be naturally replaced. These zones depend on the dispersal of males from protected regions such as Chobe National Park and the Moremi Game Reserve. Yet recent surveys have documented shifts in elephant distribution, implying that herds may increasingly avoid such hunting areas. If this avoidance continues, the population of mature bulls could decline irrespective of official quotas.
The scientific foundations of Botswana’s hunting policy have also come under scrutiny. EWB’s review found that the government’s quota model, last updated in 2011, relied on outdated assumptions of steady population growth and unverified rates of cross-border elephant movement. These factors, alongside the absence of recent field data, make the model inadequate for present-day decision-making. Requests by researchers for access to quota data, including tusk measurements and the age and sex of hunted elephants, have reportedly gone unanswered.
Botswana’s government continues to frame hunting as a tool for reducing human-elephant conflict and providing rural income. Some community representatives endorse this view, noting that hunting revenues help finance local development projects. Others, however, argue that photographic tourism offers more sustainable long-term benefits. The tourism sector contributes approximately 12 percent of Botswana’s GDP and sustains over 100,000 jobs, with photographic safaris often centred on encounters with large, recognisable bulls.
Chase cautions that increasing hunting quotas or expanding concession areas risks depleting the very wildlife assets upon which both hunting and tourism depend. “Expanding extraction will not fix our economic or ecological challenges,” he warns. “It accelerates the loss of the resources that communities and industries alike rely upon.”
As the debate intensifies, Botswana finds itself navigating a delicate balance between community welfare, ecological sustainability, and economic resilience. The country hosts roughly one third of Africa’s remaining savannah elephants, positioning it at the centre of the continent’s broader conservation discourse. The question now confronting policymakers is how to align national policy with ecological realities without sacrificing the integrity of either livelihoods or landscapes.
Whether Botswana can reconcile these competing priorities may determine not only the fate of its elephants but also the future of African conservation models that seek to move beyond binary narratives of protection versus utilisation.
