Astrengthening El Niño is expected to be a major influence on rainfall patterns across Southern Africa during the 2026/27 rainy season, with much of the central and southern region facing an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall, while wetter conditions are favoured across parts of the north and east.
The forecast follows the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August. The forum brought together climate experts from national meteorological and hydrological services across the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to assess seasonal conditions and strengthen regional preparedness.
Between October and December 2026, below-normal rainfall is forecast across large parts of the SADC region, including areas of Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho.
The regional outlook, however, is not uniform. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), north-western Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and the Comoros.
Above-normal rainfall is particularly favoured in eastern DRC, much of Tanzania, the extreme northern parts of Malawi and Zambia, and Seychelles.
The contrast is expected to become more pronounced between January and March 2027. Below-normal rainfall is forecast across much of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa, while northern areas are more likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
These wetter areas include the DRC, northern Zambia and Malawi, northern Mozambique and parts of Tanzania. Above-normal rainfall is particularly favoured in eastern Tanzania and the Comoros.
The outlook is being shaped primarily by a strong El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific. El Niño alters large-scale atmospheric circulation and can influence rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the Pacific Ocean, including across Southern Africa.
However, the regional climate outlook does not attribute expected conditions to El Niño alone. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole have also been identified as important climate drivers. Their interaction contributes to the significant differences expected between northern, central, eastern and southern parts of the region.
Temperatures are also expected to remain above long-term averages across much of SADC between October 2026 and January 2027, although some central areas could experience cooler-than-normal conditions.
The combination of elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall could increase pressure on soil moisture, water resources, livestock and rain-fed agriculture in areas where the drier forecast materialises. For countries with substantial rural populations and economies exposed to rainfall variability, the consequences could extend beyond agriculture to food security, energy production and household livelihoods.
The outlook nevertheless needs to be interpreted carefully. A forecast for below-normal seasonal rainfall does not mean that every locality will experience drought, just as an above-normal rainfall forecast does not automatically mean widespread flooding. Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities across relatively large geographical areas and cannot determine precisely when and where individual rainfall events will occur.
For farmers and communities, the timing of rainfall can be as important as the seasonal total. A season may record near-normal rainfall overall while still producing damaging dry spells during critical stages of crop development. Conversely, intense rainfall over a short period can generate flooding without substantially changing the seasonal classification.
This makes regular updates from national meteorological services and regional climate institutions particularly important as the rainy season approaches and develops.
SARCOF-33 is intended to move beyond forecasting towards practical preparedness. Climate information can support decisions across agriculture, water management, energy, public health and disaster-risk reduction, allowing governments and communities to prepare for a range of possible conditions.
For Southern African governments, the immediate task will be to translate the regional forecast into locally relevant action. This could include strengthening water-management measures, reviewing agricultural planning, protecting livestock, monitoring food-security risks and ensuring that early-warning information reaches vulnerable communities.
The forecast also illustrates the importance of viewing Southern Africa’s climate through a regional rather than narrowly national lens. Rainfall systems cross political borders, while rivers, agricultural markets, energy networks and food-supply chains connect countries with very different climatic exposures.
El Niño is a recurring natural climate phenomenon, but its effects are experienced within societies with differing levels of resilience and preparedness. The significance of the 2026/27 outlook will therefore depend not only on how the climate evolves, but also on how effectively governments, businesses, farmers and communities use available information to reduce risks.
The latest assessment points to a potentially pronounced north-south divide: drier and warmer conditions across much of central and southern SADC, alongside wetter prospects in several northern and eastern areas. The forecast is not a predetermined outcome, but an indication of where risks are currently concentrated as the region prepares for the coming rainy season.
