Southern African governments are strengthening regional disaster preparedness ahead of the 2026–27 rainy season, as forecasts indicate an increased risk of drought, extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns associated with a strengthening El Niño.
Representatives of 15 Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states met in Johannesburg from 20 to 23 October to assess regional readiness, coordinate contingency planning and identify measures to protect communities, agricultural production and essential services.
The workshop, convened by the SADC Secretariat in partnership with regional and international humanitarian organisations, focused on translating climate forecasts into early interventions rather than relying exclusively on emergency responses after disasters occur.
According to SADC’s seasonal outlook, below-normal rainfall is favoured across much of central and southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and parts of South Africa. Some northern areas are expected to experience normal or above-normal rainfall, illustrating the uneven distribution of potential impacts across the region. Above-average temperatures are also considered likely across much of the bloc.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across the world. The World Meteorological Organization reported in October that the current event was strengthening, with the potential to become exceptionally intense. However, its regional effects will depend on other climate influences and local conditions. (World Meteorological Organization)
Anderson Banda, director of the SADC Humanitarian and Emergency Operations Centre, said the Johannesburg discussions were intended to establish a regional road map for preparedness and contingency planning.
Participating countries agreed to develop detailed national plans identifying vulnerable populations and appropriate protective measures. The proposed approach encompasses multiple hazards, recognising that drought, flooding, extreme heat and tropical cyclones can create overlapping demands on emergency services and public resources.
Banda said anticipatory action would be central to mobilising resources before conditions deteriorated, alongside stronger information-sharing and coordination between governments and communities.
South Africa’s National Disaster Management Centre is also preparing for potential impacts. Its director for disaster risk assessment and early warning, Pumeza Tyali, said the country had developed an El Niño contingency plan and was consolidating logistical arrangements to support agricultural production and food security.
For farmers across the region, the immediate challenge is to manage uncertainty while making decisions about planting, water use, livestock and household food supplies. Early access to reliable local forecasts could help communities adapt planting decisions, conserve water and protect productive assets.
Lewis Hove, leader of the Resilience Team at the Food and Agriculture Organization in Southern Africa, warned that water shortages could increase competition between people and wildlife for remaining water sources, potentially heightening disease risks, including anthrax. He called for preparedness measures covering crops, livestock, fisheries and wildlife.
The implications extend beyond agriculture. Reduced rainfall can affect water supplies, electricity generation where hydropower is important, food prices and rural livelihoods. The severity of these effects will depend on existing water reserves, household resources, government preparedness and the duration of adverse conditions.
SADC’s preparations also reflect lessons from the 2023–24 El Niño season, when delayed funding, inadequate supplies and slow response mechanisms constrained interventions despite available forecasts. The challenge is to ensure that warnings lead to practical support reaching exposed communities in time. (SADC)
SADC ministers are expected to advance regional preparations at a meeting scheduled for 11–12 November in Gaborone, Botswana, according to the officials cited in the original report.
For Southern Africa, the test will be whether regional coordination can translate into timely, adequately funded action that protects livelihoods and limits disruption across countries facing different levels of climate risk.
