Nigeria may raise crude oil production by approximately 100000 barrels per day in the coming months, according to the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, Bashir Bayo Ojulari. The projection reflects ongoing efforts to stabilise and incrementally expand output within one of Africa’s largest hydrocarbon sectors, while acknowledging structural and operational constraints.
Speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Ojulari indicated that Nigeria’s production levels, which averaged between 1.6 million and 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025, could move closer to a national target of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026. This anticipated increase aligns with broader continental ambitions to optimise resource governance and production efficiency, particularly in a period of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets.
The potential adjustment in output also intersects with wider geopolitical considerations. Market volatility linked to tensions involving Iran has raised questions about supply continuity, prompting attention towards alternative producers within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Nigeria’s position within OPEC places it among countries that may contribute to moderating short term supply gaps, although officials emphasise that its capacity remains comparatively limited relative to leading producers.
Ojulari noted that while Nigeria cannot match the scale or rapid responsiveness of countries such as Saudi Arabia, incremental gains remain feasible. “We are building that capacity,” he stated, underscoring a strategy focused on gradual improvements rather than abrupt expansion. This approach reflects both infrastructural realities and a policy environment shaped by reform and institutional restructuring.
Recent internal reviews within the national oil company have prioritised execution efficiency, with a particular emphasis on delivering projects within budget and on schedule. Historically, delays and cost overruns have constrained output growth and investor confidence. Efforts to address these challenges form part of a broader recalibration of Nigeria’s energy sector, including regulatory reforms and attempts to curb production losses linked to pipeline disruptions and crude theft.
Across the African continent, Nigeria’s trajectory is being observed within a wider discourse on energy sovereignty and developmental equity. While oil continues to play a central role in fiscal stability for several African economies, there is increasing recognition of the need to balance extraction with long term sustainability and domestic value addition. In this context, incremental production gains are not solely a matter of volume, but of governance, accountability, and equitable distribution of resource benefits.
The outlook remains contingent on multiple variables, including security conditions in producing regions, global price movements, and the effectiveness of ongoing sectoral reforms. Nevertheless, Nigeria’s stated ambition to modestly increase output signals a measured attempt to reinforce its role within both African and global energy systems, without overstating its capacity in a complex and evolving market.
