Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.89% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the 4.07% recorded in the final quarter of last year, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
The marginal slowdown reflects softer momentum across both the oil and non oil sectors, suggesting that while growth remains positive, the recovery is still uneven and vulnerable to structural constraints.
Since taking office in 2023, President Bola Tinubu has pursued an ambitious reform programme aimed at stabilising public finances and laying the groundwork for stronger long term expansion. Key measures have included the removal of fuel and electricity subsidies, a sharp devaluation of the naira and a broad overhaul of the tax system.
These policies have been widely praised by investors and international institutions as necessary, if difficult, steps towards restoring macroeconomic stability. At the same time, they have contributed to higher living costs and placed pressure on households, complicating the political and social landscape.
Recent figures suggest that the reforms are beginning to yield some results. Economic growth improved to 3.87% in 2025, up from 3.38% the previous year, indicating a gradual strengthening of activity. However, the current pace remains well below the government’s target of 7% annual growth by 2027, highlighting the scale of the challenge ahead.
The oil sector, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, showed a slight dip in output. Average daily production stood at 1.55 million barrels in the first quarter, compared with 1.58 million barrels in the preceding quarter. While the decline is modest, it underscores ongoing issues around investment, infrastructure and security that continue to weigh on production levels.
Meanwhile, the non oil sector, often seen as critical to diversifying the economy, also experienced a slowdown. This suggests that broader economic activity is still adjusting to the effects of policy changes, as well as external pressures such as global financial conditions and energy price volatility.
The timing of the data is politically significant. Tinubu is preparing to seek a second and final term in elections scheduled for January, and the performance of the economy is likely to be central to his campaign. The administration will need to convince voters that the short term pain associated with reforms is translating into tangible long term benefits.
For now, Nigeria’s economic trajectory remains one of cautious progress. Growth is moving in the right direction, but not yet at the pace required to meet ambitious targets or significantly improve living standards for its rapidly expanding population.
The coming quarters will be critical in determining whether reforms can accelerate momentum or whether persistent structural challenges continue to hold the economy back.
