Precious metals have stood out as the year’s most robust performers in global commodities, with silver leading gains and outperforming major equity indices and currencies. Gold also achieved record highs as investors sought stability in an uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape.
In contrast, agricultural and energy markets have faced significant headwinds, weighed down by abundant supply and subdued demand across multiple regions. Analysts expect the trend to continue into 2026, with expectations of lower interest rates creating opportunities for metals but offering limited relief to agricultural and energy producers.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, noted that demand for metals remains steady across industrial and retail sectors. He observed that central bank buying and investor positioning ahead of anticipated reductions in United States interest rates have supported sustained momentum in precious metals.
Silver appreciated by approximately 161 per cent in 2025, surpassing 80 US dollars per ounce for the first time, while gold advanced by 66 per cent. Silver’s rally was driven by constrained supply, low inventories and its growing recognition as a critical mineral under United States industrial policy. Sustained central bank purchases further reinforced the upward trajectory of gold prices. Platinum and palladium also recorded notable annual gains, reflecting broader investor confidence in the precious metals complex.
BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying observed that the conditions underpinning these gains remain largely intact, suggesting continued resilience in 2026 as geopolitical uncertainties and policy transitions persist.
In the energy sector, both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks fell by roughly 15 per cent this year. Brent crude is on track for its longest sequence of annual losses, reflecting an ongoing imbalance between rising global supply and tepid demand. This has occurred despite continuing disruptions from conflict-related infrastructure attacks in Eastern Europe and United States measures constraining Venezuelan exports.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have temporarily halted production increases for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing nearly three million barrels per day since April 2025. Analysts believe that any further price declines could prompt a coordinated reduction in output, although current levels appear sufficient to justify a continuation of gradual supply unwinding once the pause concludes.
Copper has emerged as a key industrial story of 2025. Prices on the London Metal Exchange reached an unprecedented 12,960 US dollars per tonne, marking a 44 per cent annual rise. This was supported by a weaker dollar, strong demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and renewable energy technologies, as well as production disruptions in key mining regions. Tin experienced comparable gains due to constrained exports from Myanmar and Indonesia, while aluminium rose 17 per cent, aided by China’s production limits and an expanding market for energy transition technologies.
Iron ore markets remained unexpectedly firm despite lower steel production in China, buoyed by the easing of property restrictions in major cities. However, coking coal ended the year lower as weaker steelmaking demand offset regional supply constraints.
Agricultural markets have been considerably less buoyant. Cocoa recorded the steepest decline among major commodities, falling 48 per cent in 2025 after a dramatic surge the previous year. Improved harvests in West Africa, following weather-related shortages in 2024, have increased supply and pressured prices. Sugar and robusta coffee each lost around one fifth of their value, reflecting oversupply and weaker consumption patterns.
Chicago soybeans closed the year marginally higher, helped by the resumption of United States exports to China after a thaw in trade relations. However, wheat and maize ended lower amid ample global inventories. Palm oil prices in Malaysia fell nine per cent, although Indonesian biodiesel policies could stabilise the market in 2026. Rubber prices also weakened as favourable weather boosted output in Thailand while vehicle demand remained subdued.
For Southern African economies, these developments present both challenges and opportunities. Rising metal prices, especially for platinum and palladium, strengthen export earnings and fiscal revenues for producers in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Conversely, weaker energy and agricultural prices may affect foreign exchange inflows and investment incentives in oil-producing and farming regions across the continent.
As global markets adjust to changing interest rate cycles and the energy transition, Africa’s resource economies will likely seek to diversify beyond traditional commodity dependencies. The ability of governments to capture value within domestic processing and manufacturing chains will remain critical to translating commodity cycles into sustainable development outcomes.
