South Africa has formally proposed a long-term agreement to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States over a ten-year period, as part of broader efforts to diversify energy sources and revitalise diplomatic relations with Washington. The proposed deal, disclosed in a ministerial statement by the South African government, would see the country importing between 75 and 100 million cubic metres of LNG annually from the world’s leading LNG exporter.
According to Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, the agreement could unlock between $900 million and $1.2 billion in trade per annum, amounting to an estimated $9 to $12 billion over a decade, contingent on prevailing prices. Ntshavheni emphasised that U.S. LNG would supplement, rather than supplant, existing gas imports, particularly those currently sourced via pipeline from Mozambique.
This initiative follows a meeting in Washington between President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Donald Trump, where the South African leader sought to ease growing diplomatic tensions. Relations have deteriorated in recent years over South Africa’s domestic policies, notably land reform and black economic empowerment initiatives, which have drawn criticism from the Trump administration. President Trump previously accused the South African government of enacting policies amounting to “genocide” against white farmers—a charge widely dismissed by legal scholars and human rights organisations.
The visit was further complicated by vocal opposition from high-profile South African expatriates such as Elon Musk, who has labelled the country’s racial policies as “openly racist.” In March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expelled South Africa’s ambassador to the United States, Ebrahim Rasool, following Pretoria’s support for a genocide case filed against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
The proposed LNG trade package is part of a broader economic engagement that includes a duty-free quota for 40,000 South African-manufactured vehicles annually, alongside duty-free provisions for automotive components, 385 million kilograms of steel, and 132 million kilograms of aluminium. It also seeks to foster technological collaboration, particularly in hydraulic fracturing (fracking), as South Africa reconsiders its moratorium on shale gas exploration in the Karoo Basin—home to some of the country’s largest undeveloped gas reserves.
South Africa’s current gas imports are heavily reliant on Mozambique, whose own energy sector has experienced prolonged instability. The $20 billion Mozambique LNG project, operated by TotalEnergies, has been suspended since 2021 due to insurgent violence in the Cabo Delgado region. TotalEnergies, which holds a 26.5% stake, is seeking Mozambican governmental approval to lift the force majeure declaration, with production tentatively expected to commence by 2029. Other key stakeholders include Japan’s Mitsui & Co. (20%) and Mozambique’s state-owned Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), which holds a 15% stake.
Despite these delays, Mozambique’s LNG prospects remain critical to both national and regional economic futures. The country stands to earn an estimated $23 billion over 30 years from the Coral Norte project, which includes the Coral South FLNG, Africa’s first floating LNG platform operating in deep water. This facility is capable of processing 3.4 million metric tonnes of LNG per year.
Across Africa, LNG developments continue to surge. Major projects include Rovuma LNG (18 million tonnes per annum), Mozambique LNG (43 million tpy), and Tanzania LNG (10 million tpy). Although 18 African countries currently produce natural gas, over 90% of the continent’s output originates from Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria. Nigeria remains the continent’s gas giant, with reserves estimated at 206.5 trillion cubic feet, contributing approximately 95% of the country’s foreign exchange and 20% of its gross domestic product.
As South Africa pursues energy diversification, partnerships like the one proposed with the U.S. may provide critical buffers against regional supply shocks, while opening channels for technology transfer and industrial growth. However, the success of such deals will hinge not only on market economics but also on navigating the delicate balance of geopolitics and domestic policy scrutiny.
