Southern Africa is poised for a strategic shift in its energy landscape, as Namibia and Botswana deepen bilateral cooperation with plans to construct a jointly-owned oil refinery. This collaborative venture, currently under discussion between the two governments, underscores a broader regional commitment to enhance energy security, reduce import dependency, and foster economic diversification.
During a recent diplomatic visit to Gaborone, Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah and her Botswana counterpart, President Duma Boko, reaffirmed their intent to promote regional energy integration through tangible infrastructure projects. According to a formal statement from the Namibian presidency, the leaders agreed on the urgent necessity of concrete programmes that can bridge economic inequalities and foster job creation across both countries.
This development represents a strategic pivot for two of Africa’s foremost diamond-producing nations. Historically reliant on diamond exports—Botswana via Debswana and Namibia through Debmarine—both countries now face declining global demand, driven by shifting consumer preferences and the rise of synthetic alternatives. In 2024, Debswana reduced output by 6 million carats to end the year at 17.9 million, while Debmarine Namibia has announced a further 5% production cut for 2025, following a 13% reduction in 2024.
These economic headwinds have accelerated efforts to diversify national revenue streams. Energy has emerged as a primary candidate for this transition. The proposed oil refinery project aligns with both countries’ broader ambitions to enhance domestic value chains, minimise vulnerability to commodity cycles, and assert greater control over critical infrastructure.
In 2023, Namibia imported approximately $1.52 billion worth of refined petroleum, making it the country’s largest import. The top suppliers included India ($395 million), the United Arab Emirates ($284 million), Saudi Arabia ($206 million), Oman ($163 million), and Malaysia ($108 million), indicating a significant reliance on distant and geopolitically complex sources.
Similarly, Botswana imported refined petroleum valued at $1.08 billion, also ranking as its top import. The bulk of this came from South Africa ($773 million), followed by Namibia ($242 million), Mozambique ($59.4 million), the UAE ($1.98 million), and India ($1.96 million). The data highlights Botswana’s current dependence on regional suppliers, which, while more proximate than Namibia’s, still limit its energy sovereignty.
The establishment of a regional refinery could address several of these challenges. Not only would it reduce the current import burden borne by both countries, but it would also create a strategic asset capable of serving broader Southern African markets. By jointly owning and operating the facility, Namibia and Botswana could ensure equitable distribution of benefits, while fostering interdependence that enhances regional stability.
This policy shift comes amid increasing hydrocarbon exploration activity across Southern Africa. Namibia, in particular, has drawn considerable international attention due to promising offshore deposits along its Atlantic coastline. Companies such as TotalEnergies and Shell have engaged in exploration ventures, with preliminary results suggesting substantial untapped reserves. Similarly, countries including Mozambique and South Africa are ramping up onshore and offshore drilling efforts, driven by the desire to convert resource potential into energy independence.
In this context, the proposed refinery not only represents an infrastructure investment but also signals a maturing energy policy framework in the region. It reflects a deliberate attempt by Namibia and Botswana to move beyond extractive dependence, whether in diamonds or crude exports, towards more vertically integrated and resilient economies.
As discussions advance, key considerations will include environmental assessments, financing models, location logistics, and integration with existing regional energy corridors. If executed effectively, this initiative could serve as a blueprint for broader pan-African energy partnerships, setting a precedent for infrastructure-led cooperation among neighbouring states.
