South Africa faces the risk of losing up to 100,000 jobs due to new 30% tariffs imposed by the United States on key exports including citrus, wine, and vehicles, according to Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago.
South Africa could witness the loss of up to 100,000 jobs following the implementation of 30% import tariffs by the United States, a move expected to hit the agricultural and automotive sectors particularly hard. This development was outlined by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, during an interview with local broadcaster Radio 702 on Wednesday, 16 July 2025.
According to Kganyago, the newly imposed tariffs, set to take effect from 1 August 2025, pose significant risks to employment in industries that are highly dependent on US market access. The agricultural sector, a major employer of low-skilled labourers, stands to be disproportionately affected. Products such as citrus fruits, table grapes, wines, macadamia nuts, and ostrich leather are all subject to these elevated duties.
Kganyago emphasised the fragility of this situation: “The impact in agriculture could actually be quite devastating because agriculture employs a lot of low-skilled workers, and here the impact is on citrus fruit, table grapes and wines.” The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa has echoed similar concerns, stating that the citrus industry alone could see 35,000 jobs placed at risk. Towns like Citrusdal in the Western Cape, which are heavily reliant on fruit exports to the US, could suffer extensive socio-economic consequences.
The automotive sector, too, has shown early signs of distress. Since tariffs on car exports were introduced in April 2025, South African vehicle exports to the US have reportedly declined by more than 80%. Kganyago noted the gravity of the trend, suggesting that without urgent mitigation strategies, the cumulative impact on employment could reach six figures.
These concerns come amid an already strained labour market. As reported by Statistics South Africa, the country recorded an official unemployment rate of 32.9% in the first quarter of 2025. Under the expanded definition, which includes discouraged job seekers, the figure rises to 43.1%. Such levels position South Africa among nations with the highest unemployment globally, amplifying the potential social fallout from the new tariffs.
The administration of US President Donald Trump has justified the tariffs as a measure to “protect American industries and jobs,” particularly in agricultural and automotive manufacturing. However, critics have argued that the move could undermine trade relations with key partners on the African continent, potentially reversing gains achieved under previous trade frameworks such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
While diplomatic channels remain open, the South African government and private sector stakeholders are reportedly exploring diversification strategies, including expanding exports to Asian markets and reinforcing trade ties with the European Union. Nonetheless, time-sensitive sectors like fresh produce may find it challenging to pivot quickly.
The tariffs’ full economic impact will likely become clearer in the final quarter of the year. However, what is evident at this stage is that thousands of livelihoods are already precariously positioned, dependent on an increasingly volatile international trade environment.
