Senegal’s fiscal position is coming under renewed pressure, with Barclays estimating that the country’s 2026 deficit could reach 9.2% of GDP on a cash basis once payments to clear domestic arrears are included. The estimate is higher than the 7.6% commitment-basis deficit contained in the government’s revised budget.
The revised position reflects a combination of weaker-than-expected revenue, higher energy subsidies and substantial financing requirements. Senegal’s initial 2026 budget had targeted a deficit of about 5.4% of GDP, but the supplementary budget has increased that projection to 7.6%. Official budget documents published by Senegal’s Ministry of Finance and Budget provide the underlying framework for the revision.
Barclays analyst Michael Kafe estimates that the government’s cash deficit could rise further after around 300 billion CFA francs ($525 million) allocated to clearing domestic arrears is taken into account. Barclays also estimates that debt-service costs could reach 6.8 trillion CFA francs in 2026, substantially increasing the pressure on available public resources.
The revised budget illustrates the trade-offs facing Dakar. Energy subsidies have risen sharply, with the supplementary budget increasing the allocation from 250 billion CFA francs to about 790.3 billion CFA francs. At the same time, planned investment spending has been reduced, reflecting the government’s need to accommodate higher current expenditure and financing costs.
Revenue assumptions have also weakened. The supplementary budget reduces projected revenues by about 340 billion CFA francs, while expenditure is increased by approximately 150 billion CFA francs. The government has also revised downward expected receipts from its Economic and Social Recovery Plan, reducing the forecast from about 763 billion CFA francs to roughly 312 billion.
The fiscal adjustment is taking place against the backdrop of Senegal’s broader effort to rebuild confidence in its public finances. An audit of government accounts previously found significant under-reporting of fiscal deficits and public debt between 2019 and 2023. The IMF subsequently reported that central government debt at the end of 2023 had been revised from 74.4% to 111% of GDP, following the incorporation of previously undisclosed liabilities.
Senegal is now seeking a new 36-month IMF-supported programme worth about $2.2 billion. An IMF staff-level agreement reached in September remains subject to Executive Board approval and financing assurances. The proposed programme focuses on restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation, improving public financial management and protecting social spending. Senegal has also indicated its intention to seek debt treatment to support debt sustainability.
For Senegal, the immediate challenge is therefore not simply the size of the deficit. It is the balance between restoring fiscal credibility, meeting existing financial obligations and maintaining investment and social protection while the economy adjusts to a substantially revised understanding of its public debt position.
