Long-standing hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea appear to be escalating towards open conflict, according to officials in Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region. Should war break out between these two formidable military powers, it would not only signal the collapse of the rapprochement that earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 but could also have far-reaching consequences for the wider region. Analysts warn that such a conflict could draw in other regional players and further complicate an already dire humanitarian situation in the Horn of Africa, where internal strife in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia has left millions in need of aid.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a senior official in Tigray’s interim administration, issued a stark warning in an article for The Africa Report, stating that hostilities could erupt at any moment. Tensions stem from the division within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant force in the region’s politics. Following the devastating 2020–2022 civil war between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s central government—a conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives—the faction has fractured. One segment, now in control of Tigray with the federal government’s backing, is at odds with a breakaway group accused of seeking an alliance with Eritrea.
On Tuesday, this dissident faction seized the town of Adigrat in northern Tigray, prompting the region’s interim leader, Getachew Reda, to appeal to the Ethiopian government for assistance in quelling the unrest. While the breakaway faction denies any collaboration with Eritrea, Getachew voiced concerns that the Tigrayan people could once again find themselves caught in a war not of their choosing.
The Ethiopian federal government has remained silent on the rising tensions, while Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the warnings as “war-mongering psychosis.” Nevertheless, signs of military preparations are evident. Human Rights Concern – Eritrea, a UK-based organisation, reported that Eritrea had initiated a nationwide military mobilisation in mid-February. Additionally, Ethiopian forces have reportedly been deployed towards the Eritrean border, according to diplomatic and regional sources, though these movements remain unverified.
With both nations seemingly reinforcing their military positions, the prospect of renewed hostilities looms large, raising fears that Tigray, a region already scarred by war, could once again bear the brunt of the conflict.
