Construction has formally begun on Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote’s planned $16 billion oil refinery and petrochemical complex in Lamu, Kenya, marking one of the largest industrial investments proposed in East Africa.
Dangote and Kenyan President William Ruto led the groundbreaking ceremony at Lamu Port on 30 September, alongside other African leaders and regional representatives. The project is designed to process up to 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day and is targeted for completion around 2030.
The facility is planned as an integrated energy and petrochemical complex within the LAPSSET Special Economic Zone, incorporating refining, petrochemical production, storage, pipelines and power generation. Honeywell has been selected to provide refining technologies, licensing, engineering services, equipment and digital systems, building on its involvement with Dangote’s refinery in Lagos.
The project is intended to serve Kenya and wider East African markets that remain dependent on imported petroleum products. Kenya imported about 5.5 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2025, while domestic demand reached approximately 5.7 million tonnes, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The value of petroleum imports declined from KSh575.5 billion in 2024 to KSh528.8 billion in 2025 as international crude prices eased.
The regional significance of the project extends beyond Kenya’s domestic market. Dangote has offered East African governments a combined 30% equity interest, with Kenya allocated a 10% stake. Ethiopia and Rwanda have also expressed interest in participating. The proposed structure could provide neighbouring governments with a direct interest in strategic energy infrastructure while giving the refinery access to a broader regional market.
The development also raises questions about crude supply. Kenya currently has limited domestic crude production, while potential supplies from countries such as Uganda and South Sudan would depend on the development of supporting infrastructure and reliable cross-border arrangements. Dangote has indicated that the refinery would be capable of processing crude from African and international sources, including the Middle East and the United States.
The project is proceeding alongside unresolved land and environmental questions. A Kenyan court has ordered the status quo to be maintained over disputed land in the Manda Magogoni area after 133 residents challenged the development, citing ancestral land claims and other concerns. The case is scheduled for further hearing in October. The legal proceedings did not prevent the groundbreaking ceremony, although they could affect activities on disputed sections of the proposed site.
Kenyan authorities have described the refinery as a major industrial investment and estimate that the wider complex could generate as many as 60,000 direct and indirect jobs. President Ruto has also projected a substantial contribution to Kenya’s economic output. Such figures are projections and will ultimately depend on construction, operations, investment levels and the wider performance of the Kenyan and regional economies.
For East Africa, the refinery represents an attempt to move a greater share of the region’s energy value chain towards domestic processing and petrochemical manufacturing. If completed as planned, it could alter regional petroleum supply patterns and create additional demand for infrastructure, logistics and industrial services.
Its eventual economic impact, however, will depend on several factors, including access to competitively priced crude, financing, regional demand, infrastructure, environmental compliance and the resolution of outstanding land issues.
The Lamu project therefore forms part of a broader African industrialisation story in which countries are seeking to capture more value from energy resources and reduce dependence on imported finished products. Its progress will provide an important test of whether large-scale private investment can be integrated with regional markets, domestic capital and local communities while addressing the infrastructure and governance challenges that accompany major industrial developments.
