Asia’s crude oil imports are recovering from the sharp disruption that followed the escalation of conflict around Iran, but volumes remain materially below levels recorded before the conflict, underscoring continued pressure on global energy supply chains.
Data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler indicate that Asian crude imports are expected to average about 23.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, up from 23.38 million bpd in August and the highest monthly level since February. However, September volumes remain roughly 13% below the 27.55 million bpd average recorded during the three months to February.
The recovery follows a much sharper contraction earlier in the year. Asian crude arrivals fell to about 19.15 million bpd in April, according to Kpler, before gradually increasing as producers, refiners, traders and shipping companies adapted to disruptions affecting established routes.
Middle Eastern supplies have also recovered, although they remain below pre-conflict levels. Kpler estimates that Asian imports from the Middle East will reach approximately 12.56 million bpd in September, compared with 11.66 million bpd in August and 7.12 million bpd in April. The September figure remains about 3.53 million bpd below the 16.09 million bpd average recorded in the three months before the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the disruption. Shipping activity through the waterway has fallen sharply compared with pre-conflict levels, although tanker-tracking data can be affected when vessels switch off their identification systems. Recent reports also indicate that vessels have continued to face security risks while attempting to transit the strait.
Saudi Arabia has sought to reduce its dependence on the route through its 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline, which transports crude from the kingdom’s eastern fields towards the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline was temporarily shut following a September drone attack that Saudi Arabia and Iraq said originated from Iraqi territory. Saudi Arabia subsequently resumed operations, although pumping initially remained below full capacity after damage to three pumping stations.
The disruption is also affecting refined products. Kpler data indicate that Asian imports of light and middle distillates are forecast at 5.84 million bpd in September, up from 5.25 million bpd in August but still more than 1 million bpd below the pre-conflict average.
For African economies, the implications extend beyond crude-export revenues. Higher freight, insurance and refined-fuel costs can affect transport, electricity generation, agriculture and industrial production, particularly in countries that rely heavily on imported petroleum products. At the same time, African oil producers may encounter opportunities from changing trade routes and efforts by refiners to diversify supply, although these gains depend on infrastructure, shipping capacity, financing and domestic refining capability.
The Asian recovery therefore represents an improvement in physical flows rather than a return to normality. Energy markets remain sensitive to developments around major shipping corridors, alternative export routes and the ability of producers and traders to sustain supplies while managing higher logistical and security costs.
