Africa could face economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion if forecasts of an exceptionally strong El Niño weather event materialise, according to the African Development Bank, with concerns growing over food security, agricultural production, infrastructure resilience and population displacement across several regions.
Anthony Nyong, Director for Climate Change and Green Growth at the African Development Bank, said the anticipated climate event could reduce gross domestic product across the most heavily affected countries by between one and two per cent on average. The warning comes as meteorological agencies continue to monitor warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that could produce one of the most intense El Niño episodes on record.
The Bank’s latest economic outlook, published earlier this year, projected continental growth of 4.2 per cent in 2026 before strengthening to 4.4 per cent in 2027 under prevailing economic assumptions. However, those projections were prepared before forecasts suggested the possibility of an unusually powerful El Niño event.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it originates far from Africa, it influences weather patterns across the continent, often bringing prolonged drought to parts of Southern Africa while increasing the likelihood of flooding in sections of East Africa. The precise impacts vary between countries and regions depending on local climatic conditions.
The continent continues to experience increasing climate variability. The 2023 and 2024 El Niño episode contributed to severe drought across much of Southern Africa while heavy rainfall and flooding affected several countries in East Africa. These conditions disrupted agricultural production, reduced water availability in some regions and damaged infrastructure in others, placing additional pressure on already constrained public finances.
According to the African Development Bank, African farmers are expected to experience approximately $330 million in lost income this year because of climate related impacts. Fisheries may also face declining productivity as rising sea temperatures and more volatile weather affect marine ecosystems and coastal communities.
The Bank has also cautioned that climate related disasters can have lasting fiscal consequences. Governments responding to emergencies often redirect resources away from health, education and infrastructure investment towards disaster response and recovery. Such adjustments can constrain long term development priorities while increasing debt servicing pressures in countries with limited fiscal space.
In response, the African Development Bank plans to review its investment portfolio ahead of a Bank wide assessment scheduled for September. The exercise will evaluate how existing and planned projects can better support countries expected to experience significant climate related disruptions.
The institution has indicated that it is prepared to restructure relevant programmes where appropriate while working with member states to access additional international climate finance. Potential sources include the Green Climate Fund , the Adaptation Fund and other multilateral climate financing mechanisms designed to strengthen resilience and support recovery.
The financing challenge remains substantial. The United Nations has previously estimated that developing countries will require approximately $365 billion annually by 2035 to adapt effectively to climate change, while international public adaptation finance reached only $26 billion in 2023. The African Development Bank now estimates that Africa’s climate adaptation financing requirements could reach as much as $100 billion this year if the projected strength of El Niño significantly increases climate related risks.
Beyond its economic consequences, the Bank has warned that severe climate shocks may intensify humanitarian pressures. Countries identified as particularly vulnerable include Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and parts of Nigeria, where existing development challenges may be compounded by drought, flooding or reduced agricultural output.
Food prices could also come under renewed pressure. Staple crops such as maize remain highly sensitive to rainfall variability across many African economies, meaning prolonged drought or widespread flooding could reduce harvests and place additional strain on household food security.
Climate specialists note that adaptation measures implemented before disasters occur generally provide greater economic value than post disaster reconstruction. Investments in resilient infrastructure, climate smart agriculture, early warning systems, improved water management and ecosystem restoration are increasingly viewed as essential components of long term development planning across the continent.
The anticipated El Niño is expected to feature prominently in discussions at the next United Nations Climate Change Conference, where African governments are expected to continue advocating for increased adaptation finance, more equitable access to climate funding and stronger international support for resilience building initiatives.
For African policymakers, the challenge extends beyond responding to immediate weather related shocks. It involves strengthening institutions, expanding climate resilient infrastructure and ensuring that development pathways remain sustainable in the face of increasingly frequent and severe climate events.
As climate risks continue to evolve, African institutions and governments are placing greater emphasis on locally informed adaptation strategies that reflect the continent’s diverse ecological, economic and social realities. The emerging consensus is that strengthening resilience before disasters occur offers the most effective route to protecting livelihoods, sustaining economic growth and supporting long term development across Africa.
