The African Development Bank has projected that South Sudan’s economy will expand by 22 per cent in 2026, reflecting expectations of a significant recovery in oil exports and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions following a prolonged period of economic disruption.
The outlook, contained in the African Development Bank’s South Sudan Country Focus 2026 report, suggests that stronger economic performance will depend on sustained stability within South Sudan, neighbouring Sudan and the wider Red Sea region. These areas remain strategically important because they provide the principal transport corridor for South Sudan’s crude oil exports, which continue to underpin government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
Speaking during the launch of the report in Juba on Wednesday, Hoth Chany, Senior National Country Economist for South Sudan at the African Development Bank, said the projected acceleration in growth reflects expectations that oil production and exports will recover after recent interruptions. He added that economic growth is forecast to moderate to approximately 4.8 per cent in 2027 as conditions normalise.
South Sudan remains one of Africa’s most oil dependent economies, with petroleum accounting for the overwhelming majority of export earnings and a substantial share of public finances. The report notes that this concentration leaves the country highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, production disruptions and geopolitical developments affecting export routes.
The African Development Bank argues that broadening the country’s productive base will be essential for sustaining long term growth. It identifies agriculture, livestock, mining, tourism and renewable energy as sectors with significant potential to create employment, strengthen domestic value addition and reduce vulnerability to external shocks. Expanding investment in these sectors could also contribute to greater food security, increased regional trade and more diversified sources of public revenue.
For South Sudan, economic recovery is closely linked not only to domestic policy reforms but also to regional cooperation. The uninterrupted movement of oil through neighbouring Sudan to international markets remains central to fiscal stability, underscoring the extent to which economic prospects are interconnected across the Horn of Africa and the wider eastern African region.
Across the continent, development finance institutions have increasingly emphasised the importance of economic diversification alongside macroeconomic stability. While natural resources continue to provide an important foundation for many African economies, there is growing recognition that long term resilience depends on expanding productive sectors capable of generating inclusive growth, improving livelihoods and strengthening regional value chains.
The African Development Bank’s latest assessment therefore presents both an encouraging outlook for South Sudan’s short term recovery and a reminder that sustained prosperity will require continued investment beyond the oil sector. As the country seeks to consolidate economic gains, the pace of reform, infrastructure development and regional stability will remain important factors shaping its future trajectory.
