Morocco’s trade deficit has experienced notable fluctuations throughout 2024, influenced by various economic factors. As of October 2024, the trade deficit widened by 5.2% year-on-year, reaching MAD 249.8 billion (USD 24.9 billion), up from MAD 237.5 billion (USD 23.7 billion) in October 2023.
This increase is primarily attributed to a 5.8% rise in imports, which totalled MAD 623.4 billion (USD 62.3 billion). The surge in imports was driven by heightened purchases of finished equipment goods, particularly utility vehicles and electrical components, which grew by 11.6%. Additionally, imports of consumption goods climbed by 8.6%, spurred by increased spending on pharmaceuticals and passenger vehicle parts.
Conversely, exports rose by 6.2% to MAD 373.5 billion (USD 37.3 billion), an increase of over MAD 21.9 billion compared to the previous year. Key sectors contributing to this growth included automotive and phosphates. Automotive exports increased by 8% to MAD 131.4 billion (USD 13.1 billion), while phosphate and derivative exports surged by 12.5%, bolstered by a significant uptick in sales of natural and chemical fertilisers.
Despite the rise in exports, the coverage ratio—which measures exports as a percentage of imports—improved only marginally by 0.2 percentage points to 59.9%. Energy imports declined by 5.5%, reflecting lower coal and gas imports; however, these savings were insufficient to offset overall growth in other import categories. Imports of raw materials also fell by 1.4%, with significant declines in soybean oil and sunflower oil.
In the services sector, exports, including travel and tourism, grew by 16% to MAD 17 billion (USD 1.7 billion). However, an increase in service imports diluted their net impact on the trade balance.
Earlier in the year, the trade deficit showed signs of narrowing. In the first quarter of 2024, it decreased by nearly 15%, falling to MAD 10.7 billion (USD 1 billion), supported by robust export growth and a decline in imports.
By March 2024, the deficit had further shrunk by 14%, with imports dropping by 4% year-on-year and exports rising by 3% year-on-year.
However, by the end of May 2024, the trade deficit had narrowed by only 1%, reaching MAD 117.089 billion, compared to MAD 118.26 billion during the same period in the previous year. This slight improvement was due to a 2.3% rise in merchandise imports, totalling MAD 308.821 billion, and a 4.4% increase in exports, amounting to MAD 191.731 billion.
In the first half of 2024, the trade deficit showed significant improvement, increasing by just 0.4% compared to a 6.8% increase during the same period in the previous year. This positive momentum was mainly driven by robust export growth, with exports reaching MAD 365.8 billion (USD 34 billion), marking a 3% increase from the previous year. Imports rose by 2% year-on-year to MAD 7.3 billion (USD 742.8 million).
Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend indicates a gradual widening of the trade deficit towards the end of 2024. Factors contributing to this include increased imports of finished equipment and consumption goods, which have outpaced export growth in key sectors such as automotive and phosphates.
Bank Al-Maghrib, Morocco’s central bank, anticipates further stabilization in the medium term. Following a contraction in 2023, trade activity is expected to rebound, with imports projected to grow by 5% in 2024 and an additional 9% in 2025, potentially easing the country’s trade deficit.
In conclusion, while Morocco’s trade deficit has experienced periods of narrowing in 2024, recent data indicates a widening trend influenced by rising imports in specific categories. Ongoing monitoring of import and export dynamics will be crucial for understanding the future trajectory of Morocco’s trade balance.
