As the election results continue to come through in the just-ended South African elections, it is becoming clear that the African National Congress (ANC) will not attain the required majority of at least 201 National Assembly seats necessary to safeguard the Presidency. It is important to understand how the ANC, which comfortably attained 57.5% of the vote in 2019, has found itself struggling to reach 46% this year, as per results at 19:50 CAT on 31 May 2024. The ANC has clearly fallen on Jacob Zuma’s sword.
In this election, Jacob Zuma has proven to be the kingmaker through the ostensibly new political party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK). It would be incorrect to label the MK a new party. The MK has always been a wing of the ANC, but it took the infamous genius of Jacob Zuma to bring out its seemingly underestimated worth. Having understood that the MK is the pillar of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) – his home province, which also constitutes over 22% of South Africa’s registered voters – he manipulated this to his advantage.
The former president’s decisions were driven by the ANC’s internal politics, which eventually led to his resignation. These issues persisted even after his resignation, as he felt he was not respected or treated fairly by his ANC comrades. Just six months before the elections, he successfully detached the MK from the ANC, although he continues to insist that he is still an ANC member.
At the time of writing, the ANC was struggling to attain 46% of the national vote, with the MK sitting at close to 13%. If one were to combine these two percentages, it would mean that the ANC, before the MK was detached, would have attained at least 59%, which would have been higher than the previous election.
What, then, is the play here? Jacob Zuma seems to be putting the ANC into a desperate corner, forcing it to seek a coalition with the MK, which essentially means reuniting the two. What does Jacob Zuma want in return? The relationship between the current President, Cyril Ramaphosa, and former president Jacob Zuma soured years ago. It is highly likely that Jacob Zuma will demand that the ANC recall Cyril Ramaphosa as a condition for reuniting with the MK, thus giving the ANC the majority required to safeguard the Presidency.
If this is the case, it follows that Deputy President Paul Mashatile, despite his recent criticism of Jacob Zuma, will rise to the Presidency. Even if the ANC decides to seek a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the likely demand will be the departure of Cyril Ramaphosa, whose name has been tainted by the Phala Phala scandal. Whichever way it goes, the constant seems to be that Paul Mashatile is set to be the next President, as the ANC is highly likely to need a coalition partner.
Kundai Darlington Vambe is a Political Researcher and a member of The Global Alliance for Justice Education.
