Lithium’s going to get less expensive in 2023, according to a Chinese supplier of the battery metal, potentially offering some relief to electric-vehicle makers squeezed by soaring costs.
Prices have already softened after a spectacular two-year rally labeled “insane” by Elon Musk and “unreasonable” by China’s BYD Co. The cool-off is poised to continue as more supply emerges to trim abnormally high margins for lithium producers, Wang Pingwei, chairman of Sinomine Resource Group Co. said in an interview on Tuesday.
“We believe the gradual, downward trend for lithium will continue next year,” Wang said, predicting a drop of around a quarter from current levels that will still leave the company with “good” profits.
Prices won’t fall off a cliff as the market remains tight, said Wang, whose company operates mines in Zimbabwe and Canada.
Lithium’s relentless rise since 2020 has hurt buyers and contributed to the first annual increase in battery costs since BloombergNEF started tracking them nearly a decade ago.
Benchmark prices in China are still about twice as high as the start of 2022 — despite declining this month — as demand from the fast-expanding EV sector outstrips supply.
Sinomine’s Wang said he sees lithium carbonate prices dropping to about 400 000 yuan ($57 443) a ton in 2023. Prices reached a record of nearly 600 000 yuan in mid-November, according to data from Asian Metal Inc. They fell for a fifth day, to 522 500 yuan, on Thursday.
