Zambia is in the midst of its worst energy crisis in living memory, as a prolonged drought coupled with the effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon has decimated hydroelectric output from the once-mighty Kariba Dam. The reservoir, straddling the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe, has seen its water levels drop to dangerously low levels, leaving the southern African nation teetering on the brink of a power catastrophe.
Kariba, the largest man-made lake in the world by volume, was built with great ambition in the 1950s, designed to provide a stable and abundant source of hydroelectric power to both Zambia and Zimbabwe. Yet today, its towering 128-metre-high wall stands exposed, a stark reminder of the country’s overreliance on hydroelectricity and the vulnerabilities that come with it.
With only one of the six turbines on Zambia’s side of the dam currently functional, power generation has dropped to less than 10% of its normal capacity, a staggering blow for a nation that depends on Kariba for over 80% of its electricity supply. The drought has been particularly unforgiving, drying up rivers and streams that feed the dam, and compounding the woes of a population already grappling with unreliable power access.
Impact on Everyday Life and Small Businesses
Before the current crisis, less than half of Zambia’s 20 million citizens had access to electricity. Today, millions more are enduring daily hardships as rolling blackouts stretch on for days, disrupting lives and livelihoods. For many Zambians, the lights are flickering out in more ways than one—students study by candlelight, and mothers must find alternative methods to cook meals as power outages become the norm.
Businesses, especially small enterprises that form the backbone of the Zambian economy, have been hit hardest by the erratic electricity supply. Tindor Sikunyongana, a welder, has been unable to operate his workshop for five days. Like many others, he resorted to investing in a diesel generator, but rising fuel prices and the prohibitive cost of running the generator have made this an unsustainable solution. “The generator ran out of fuel again,” he lamented as his only source of power sputtered to a stop mid-conversation.
These prolonged outages are having a crippling effect on Zambia’s economic prospects, stifling productivity and forcing businesses to close or curtail operations. Restaurants and cafes in Lusaka have become temporary sanctuaries for residents desperately trying to charge laptops and mobile devices, with some patrons hauling their entire desktop computers to these establishments in a bid to stay connected and keep working.
Kariba’s Hydroelectric Future in Doubt
At the heart of this crisis lies the Kariba Dam, a colossal engineering achievement once hailed as the cornerstone of Zambia and Zimbabwe’s energy independence. The dam traps the waters of the Zambezi River, creating an expansive reservoir that has long powered turbines, providing renewable energy to both nations. But the severe drought conditions gripping southern Africa have left the dam’s water level critically low, pushing the hydroelectric station to the brink of complete shutdown for the first time in history.
The underlying cause of this disaster is twofold. First, the El Niño weather pattern, a naturally occurring phenomenon that brings warmer, drier conditions to the region, has exacerbated the drought. Secondly, rising global temperatures—driven by climate change—are further compounding the strain on Zambia’s water resources.
The visual evidence of Kariba’s plight is as grim as the numbers suggest. The dam’s once-glorious reservoir now bears a dark, reddish-brown stain near the top of its concrete wall, a fading watermark where the water level used to stand more than a decade ago. Engineers and energy experts warn that without significant rainfall, Kariba’s future as a hydroelectric powerhouse is in jeopardy.
Overreliance on Hydropower Exposes Vulnerabilities
Zambia’s current predicament highlights a glaring deficiency in its energy policy: a heavy reliance on hydroelectric power. “An 85% dependency on hydro is obviously a risk,” admits Geoffrey Chiyumbe, Vice Chairman of the Energy Committee at the Engineering Institute of Zambia. Chiyumbe and others have long warned of the need for diversification in Zambia’s energy mix to mitigate such crises, advocating for a balanced approach that incorporates both renewable sources, like solar and wind, and non-renewable alternatives such as coal or natural gas.
The case for diversification is becoming ever more urgent as the country faces the prospect of a prolonged energy shortfall. Renewable energy, while promising, requires investment and time—resources that Zambia does not have in abundance during this crisis. Solar power, in particular, could provide a vital buffer during future dry spells, but the country’s infrastructure remains underdeveloped in this area.
Zambia is now paying a high price for this lack of foresight. As blackouts persist, the social and economic ramifications are becoming increasingly severe. Experts predict that the crisis will deepen as drought conditions continue, and while long-term solutions are discussed, there is little relief in sight for the millions of Zambians who face an uncertain future without reliable access to power.
The Road Ahead
For now, the country’s energy sector must focus on immediate measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis. This may involve accelerating investment in alternative energy sources or expanding Zambia’s existing grid to tap into regional power supplies. International aid and investment may also prove pivotal as Zambia seeks to weather this unprecedented energy storm.
However, the most immediate concern is whether Kariba will recover. As climate change continues to reshape the global landscape, Zambia’s energy policy must evolve to reflect a new reality: one where droughts are not mere anomalies but recurring events. Without decisive action, the country risks enduring similar crises in the future, leaving its people vulnerable to the whims of nature.
