The world’s leading cocoa producing region is preparing for yet another poor harvest, with fresh assessments pointing to a likely ten percent decline in output for the 2025 to 2026 season. This follows two consecutive years of below average yields and persists despite slightly improved rainfall across the region.
Ivory Coast and Ghana, together with Nigeria and Cameroon, account for more than two thirds of global cocoa supply. These countries, long seen as the pillars of the global chocolate industry, are struggling under the weight of climate change, ageing trees, disease, and the damage caused by informal gold mining.
Agricultural assessors known as pod counters, working on behalf of cocoa exporters and trading houses, have been inspecting plantations ahead of the October season opening. A consensus formed from interviews with five pod counters and six exporters reveals a sharp reversal from earlier optimism. Where a five percent growth was forecast in May and June, recent field data now suggests a ten percent decline.
In Ivory Coast, where over forty percent of the world’s cocoa is grown, pod counters report that the rate of flower and cherelle failure in June was significantly higher than expected. Cherelles are the small pods that develop into mature cocoa fruit. Their early mortality is a key sign of a poor harvest ahead. “Despite the rains, the mortality rate exceeded our forecasts,” one assessor said, referring to the crucial field data gathered last month.
This pattern reflects broader pressures. Cocoa trees in many regions are reaching the end of their productive life. Combined with unpredictable rainfall and increasing temperatures, the likelihood of sustained productivity continues to diminish.
Ivory Coast is on track to produce around one point six million metric tons this season, down from over two million just five years ago. In Ghana, the decline has been even steeper. From a peak of more than one million metric tons, output dropped below five hundred thousand last season. While Ghana’s cocoa regulator remains hopeful of a modest rebound to six hundred thousand tons this year, independent estimates by the International Cocoa Organization suggest the figure will fall closer to five hundred thousand.
Flower and cherelle mortality rates in Ivory Coast are currently fifteen to twenty percent higher than earlier projections and are expected to remain elevated through July. “It is not a collapse, but it signals a clear downward direction for the coming season,” another pod counter explained. In Ghana, experts warn that a quick recovery to past production levels is unlikely. “The country is facing too many problems in the sector for output to grow quickly,” one noted.
These findings carry major implications for global cocoa markets. The last two seasons of poor West African harvests contributed to a surge in international cocoa prices. While prices have since moderated, this new forecast may reignite volatility and inflation in the confectionery supply chain.
Cameroon and Nigeria, which also produce sizeable volumes of cocoa, face their own difficulties. Poor infrastructure, disease, and climate shifts mean they are unlikely to make up for declines in the region’s two largest producers.
As global demand continues to rise, the combination of weak harvests and structural decline paints a concerning picture. With full seasonal forecasts due in August or September, the warning signs are already clear. Unless there is investment in climate resilience, research, and replanting programmes, the global cocoa industry may face an era defined not by abundance but by scarcity. The world may soon be paying far more for its chocolate, and West African producers may continue bearing the cost of a system in crisis.
