The research found that a 1°C temperature rise can cause a tenfold increase in the number of displaced people.
The study examined the effects of conflict, weather, and drought, on forced displacement in Somalia.
It was led by Dr Lisa Thalheimer from Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute and Climate Econometrics team.
She said: “The lives of pastoralists and farmers in Somalia are balanced on a knife edge.
“Even a 1°C rise on normal temperatures, whether sustained or frequently re-occurring over a few months, is enough to cause pastures to dry up and crop yield to change.
“Our research shows these seemingly small temperature changes are having an outsized impact and are forcing communities to leave their homes.”
It also found that a 50mm fall in monthly rainfall can cause displacement numbers to double.
Dr Thalheimer added: “It is alarming that, even this marginal change in temperature, has such a huge impact.
“It highlights the likely effect climate change is having on vulnerable areas across the African drylands.”
