As tensions involving Iran continue to influence security dynamics across the Middle East, attention has increasingly turned towards another strategic maritime corridor that could face disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts have highlighted the Bab el Mandeb Strait, located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, as a waterway whose stability carries significant consequences for global commerce, African economies and international energy markets.
The renewed focus follows heightened military tensions between Iran and the United States, during which Tehran has warned that further escalation could affect international shipping routes. While previous disruptions centred on the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security specialists note that instability could also extend to the Red Sea through the activities of Iran aligned groups operating in Yemen.
The Bab el Mandeb Strait serves as one of the world’s most strategically important shipping passages, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It provides access to the Suez Canal, facilitating trade between Asia, Africa and Europe. The route is particularly important for crude oil, refined petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and containerised cargo moving between major global markets.
During periods of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, several Gulf energy exporters redirected portions of their oil exports towards Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. This increased reliance on the Bab el Mandeb corridor reinforced its growing importance as an alternative maritime route for international energy supplies.
According to maritime analysts, oil shipments through the Bab el Mandeb Strait increased substantially during the first quarter of 2026 as producers and traders adjusted logistics in response to uncertainty in the Gulf.
Although Iran does not border the Red Sea, it maintains political and military relationships with the Houthi movement in Yemen. The United States and several other governments have consistently stated that Iran provides the Houthis with military assistance, financial support and weapons. Iranian officials have acknowledged political support for the movement but have repeatedly denied directing its military operations.
The Houthis have demonstrated the capability to target commercial shipping using drones, anti ship missiles and other weapons systems. Since late 2023, following the outbreak of the Israel Gaza conflict, the group has launched attacks against vessels it said were linked to Israel or countries supporting Israeli military operations. These incidents prompted numerous international shipping companies to suspend or reroute voyages away from the Red Sea.
Major shipping operators, including Maersk and Hapag Lloyd, redirected vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times and increasing freight costs. The rerouting also placed additional pressure on African ports along the southern maritime corridor while creating opportunities for some logistics hubs across Eastern and Southern Africa to handle increased shipping activity.
Security experts note that a complete physical closure of the Bab el Mandeb Strait is unlikely given the presence of international naval forces and the geographical characteristics of the waterway. However, they caution that sustained attacks or even credible threats against commercial vessels can significantly disrupt maritime traffic by increasing insurance costs, reducing commercial confidence and encouraging shipping companies to adopt longer alternative routes.
These indirect effects can have consequences comparable to a formal blockade, particularly for supply chains that depend on predictable shipping schedules and stable freight costs.
For African economies, developments in the Red Sea carry implications that extend beyond international geopolitics. Countries along the Horn of Africa occupy a strategically important position in one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, while ports across Eastern and Southern Africa are closely linked to changes in global shipping patterns. Extended diversions around southern Africa can increase demand for port services but may also contribute to higher transport costs, inflationary pressures and delays affecting imports, exports and regional supply chains.
The situation also underscores Africa’s growing relevance in discussions surrounding maritime security, international trade and energy resilience. Rather than serving solely as a transit region, African coastal states increasingly find themselves at the centre of global efforts to maintain secure sea lanes that support both regional development and international commerce.
International naval coalitions continue to patrol the Red Sea with the stated objective of protecting freedom of navigation. Diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing regional tensions also remain ongoing, although the security outlook continues to evolve alongside broader political developments in the Middle East.
At the time of publication, commercial shipping continues to transit the Bab el Mandeb Strait. While the Houthis have issued statements warning of possible restrictions on vessels associated with Israel, there has been no verified evidence that the waterway itself has been closed. Maritime authorities and shipping operators continue to monitor the security environment as governments seek diplomatic and military measures to prevent further disruption to one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.
