Africa’s economic growth trajectory is expected to remain steady in 2026, despite prevailing uncertainties in the global trade environment and limited policy space in many economies. According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, launched by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in Addis Ababa, the continent’s GDP is forecast to expand by 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent in 2027. These projections mark a continued recovery from growth rates of 3.5 per cent in 2024 and 3.9 per cent in 2025.
The outlook reflects modest but encouraging signs of macroeconomic stability in several of Africa’s large economies, fostering renewed investment flows and consumer activity. However, as noted by Stephen Karingi, Director of the Macroeconomics, Finance and Governance Division at the ECA, these gains are vulnerable to external shocks and domestic constraints. High debt servicing costs, constrained fiscal capacity, and volatile commodity markets continue to challenge the continent’s trajectory towards inclusive and sustainable development.
The global context remains subdued, with worldwide economic growth projected at 2.7 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025 and significantly below the pre-pandemic norm of 3.2 per cent. Resilience in major economies such as the United States—buoyed by sustained consumer spending and easing inflation—has provided temporary relief. Yet underlying structural weaknesses, including declining investment and limited budgetary flexibility, persist. These factors may signal a longer term global slowdown, with profound implications for developing economies.
Speaking at the report’s presentation, Hopestone Chavula, Officer-in-Charge of the ECA’s Macroeconomic Analysis Section, emphasised the unequal recovery across African subregions. East Africa continues to drive the continent’s economic momentum, with growth projected to reach 5.8 per cent in 2026, up from 5.4 per cent in 2025. Ethiopia and Kenya are expected to lead the subregional performance, supported by advancements in renewable energy and regional market integration.
North Africa is projected to experience marginally slower growth of 4.1 per cent in 2026 compared to 4.3 per cent in 2025. This is largely attributed to improvements in external balances and tourism recovery. West Africa is forecast to expand by 4.4 per cent in 2026, slightly below the previous year, amid economic reforms in Nigeria and elevated prices for precious metals. Central Africa is anticipated to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2026, reflecting continued dependence on extractive sectors and the impact of conflict-related instability. Southern Africa, where structural constraints and trade exposure to United States tariffs remain pressing concerns, is forecast to register a modest increase from 1.6 per cent in 2025 to 2.0 per cent in 2026.
Debt sustainability remains a central issue across the continent. The average public debt to GDP ratio is projected at 63 per cent in 2025, significantly higher than pre pandemic levels. Interest payments consume nearly 15 per cent of government revenues in several countries, limiting the scope for critical development spending. While a few countries have returned to international capital markets via bond issuance, approximately 40 per cent of African states remain either in or at high risk of debt distress. Several nations are seeking restructuring under the G20 Common Framework, highlighting the urgency for clearer debt resolution mechanisms.
Trade performance in 2025 was bolstered by strong exports of precious metals and agricultural products alongside increased imports of transport equipment. The continent’s relative insulation from global trade conflicts, due in part to diversified export destinations and selective tariff exemptions for key commodities such as gold and crude oil, provided a degree of resilience. However, the termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and the introduction of new tariff regimes present significant risks for export sectors, especially apparel. Meanwhile, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area continues to face logistical and policy challenges, progressing unevenly across member states.
Inflationary pressures have moderated across the continent, aided by stabilising exchange rates. Nonetheless, food price inflation remains elevated in many countries, often exceeding 10 per cent, a reflection of persistent structural vulnerabilities and climate-related disruptions. Tackling inflation in a sustainable manner requires a balanced combination of credible monetary policy, targeted fiscal interventions to support low income households, and strategic investment in food supply chains and logistics infrastructure.
The report calls for renewed multilateral engagement to address emerging challenges in a global environment increasingly characterised by geopolitical friction and economic realignment. At a time when inward-looking policies are gaining ground and multilateralism is weakening, Africa’s development ambitions demand deeper international cooperation and enhanced policy coherence. The Sevilla Commitment, the central outcome of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, presents a roadmap for reforming the international financial system and mobilising development finance at scale. Priorities include more transparent debt restructuring mechanisms and greater access to concessional and climate financing.
Amid a changing global order, the African development narrative remains multi-layered and cannot be reduced to simple metrics of GDP growth. This report underscores the continent’s ongoing efforts to forge a future that is economically stable, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive. Rather than focusing solely on external dependencies or vulnerabilities, the analysis recognises Africa’s diverse pathways to recovery and the agency of its institutions and communities in shaping their economic destiny.
The full report is accessible via desapublications.un.org.
