Global cocoa prices have fallen to their lowest levels in two years, triggered by weakening global demand for chocolate and growing concerns around unsold stockpiles in West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s leading cocoa producer. This market downturn has raised questions not only about the supply and demand mechanics but also about broader structural dependencies within the global cocoa economy, which disproportionately impacts African producers.
On Wednesday, benchmark cocoa futures in London slid nearly nine percent in early trading, reaching 3,046 pounds per metric tonne. Although prices partially recovered, they ended the session down 4.1 percent at 3,210 pounds. The New York cocoa benchmark mirrored this decline, falling 4.3 percent to close at 4,448 US dollars per tonne, after hitting an intraday low of 4,245 US dollars.
The sharp drop follows a weaker-than-anticipated quarterly report from Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers. The Swiss-headquartered company, which processes around one-fifth of the global cocoa supply, reported a 9.9 percent fall in sales volumes in the first quarter of its financial year. This exceeded analyst expectations of a 9.4 percent drop, as forecast by Swiss financial institution Vontobel. The firm’s ingredients are found in approximately a quarter of chocolate and cocoa-based products consumed globally, indicating a broader contraction in the chocolate segment.
Dealers in the cocoa trade indicated limited industry purchasing activity, with some expressing concern over the pace of the market correction. A US-based cocoa broker confirmed that investors were expanding short positions, signalling continued bearish sentiment within the market.
Meanwhile, in Côte d’Ivoire, the main farmers’ union has highlighted that approximately 700,000 metric tonnes of cocoa beans remain unsold during the current season, which concludes in September. This figure accounts for more than a third of the country’s projected harvest. In response to the growing surplus, Côte d’Ivoire’s regulatory authority announced it would intervene by purchasing 100,000 tonnes of the unsold cocoa. This move follows increased cross-border flows of cocoa from neighbouring Ghana, Liberia and Guinea, which has further elevated local stock levels and altered typical trade flows within the region.
According to estimates cited by industry insiders, including a senior figure in a leading agricultural trading firm, the global cocoa market is now expected to enter a surplus of roughly 350,000 tonnes this season. This is a marked shift from the supply crisis witnessed in 2024, when poor harvests in West Africa caused prices to spike by over 160 percent. That rally was largely driven by adverse weather conditions, disease pressure on cocoa trees and structural issues around farmer support, land use and pricing mechanisms.
Prices have since fallen by approximately 25 percent in 2026 alone, deepening a broader retreat of more than 50 percent throughout 2025. While this recent volatility underscores the sensitivity of cocoa markets to both demand shocks and regional supply shifts, it also reopens critical discourse around the systemic undervaluation of African producers within global commodity chains. Although cocoa production in countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana remains foundational to the global chocolate industry, value addition continues to occur elsewhere, reinforcing long-standing imbalances.
Beyond cocoa, trading in other soft commodities showed relative stability. Arabica coffee closed slightly higher by 0.3 percent at 3.475 US dollars per pound, while robusta coffee advanced 3.5 percent to reach 4,078 US dollars per tonne. Raw sugar prices held steady at 14.74 US cents per pound and white sugar edged down 0.3 percent to settle at 421.10 US dollars per tonne.
The interplay between local agricultural economies and global commodity exchanges once again places African producers at a pivotal, yet precarious intersection of global trade. While interventions such as regulatory purchases offer temporary relief, long-term resilience for African cocoa economies requires policies that support sustainable farming, regional trade integration and equitable participation in value chains. As the market recalibrates, the story of cocoa is not merely one of price charts but of people, land and a call for structural transformation in how African contributions to the global food system are recognised and valued.
