As the African Union Commission (AUC) elections draw near, Raila Odinga, Kenya’s former Prime Minister, has intensified his campaign to secure the position of chairperson. This high-stakes election, scheduled for February during the 38th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly, will determine the continent’s next leader tasked with addressing pressing issues of economic integration, governance, and security. Odinga’s bid, rooted in his pan-Africanist philosophy, underscores his ambitions to steer the African Union (AU) towards greater unity and development.
Odinga has been conducting a whirlwind diplomatic tour across Southern Africa, engaging key leaders in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). His vision for the continent, structured around ten priority areas, has been the cornerstone of these discussions. Among the critical issues highlighted in his agenda are regional integration, bolstering the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and strengthening the AU’s ability to resolve conflicts effectively. These proposals reflect his broader strategy to foster continental cohesion and development.
Meeting with South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, Odinga outlined his strategic framework, aiming to build consensus on his candidacy. He described the discussions as productive, noting that his message resonated with the region’s leaders. Similarly, his engagement with Mozambique’s President Daniel Francisco Chapo provided an opportunity to articulate his plans for enhancing Africa’s position in the global economy. “Thank you, Mr President, for the opportunity to share my vision for Africa and my quest to be the AUC Chairperson. Obrigado!” Odinga shared through his official communication channels.
Odinga’s Southern African engagements have also included meetings with the leaders of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho. His interactions have focused on rallying SADC’s support for his candidacy, as the region’s collective backing could prove decisive in the upcoming vote. Namibia, in particular, has expressed its alignment with Odinga’s vision, as reflected in remarks by Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Korir Sing’oei, who lauded the tour’s success.
While Odinga’s campaign has been well-received in many quarters, the race remains highly competitive. He faces notable challengers, including Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Youssouf and Madagascar’s former Foreign Minister Richard James Randriamandrato. Securing the chairpersonship will require Odinga to achieve a two-thirds majority in the first round of voting—a formidable task given the diverse interests among AU member states.
Kenya’s government has thrown its weight behind Odinga, with President William Ruto mobilising the East African Community (EAC) to support the Kenyan candidate. This alignment has bolstered Odinga’s regional backing, adding to the momentum of his campaign. Several EAC nations have publicly expressed their commitment to his candidacy, reinforcing Kenya’s efforts to secure a favourable outcome.
Odinga’s engagement in Southern Africa follows earlier diplomatic efforts in West Africa, where he held discussions with key leaders on his vision for the AU’s future. His campaign team, led by prominent figures such as Professor Makau Mutua, has described these interactions as highly productive. Prof. Mutua, a member of the AUC campaign secretariat, expressed optimism about the campaign’s trajectory, noting that “we can see only daylight ahead” after a particularly successful engagement with Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
As the election date approaches, Odinga’s diplomatic outreach underscores the significance of the AUC chairperson’s role in shaping Africa’s future. The position, currently reserved for Eastern Africa under AU rotational principles, carries substantial influence over the organisation’s policy direction. The chairperson works closely with the AU Assembly to implement key initiatives, making the election a pivotal moment for the continent’s governance.
The upcoming elections will test the effectiveness of Odinga’s strategy and the resonance of his message across the continent. His vision for a more integrated, self-reliant Africa appeals to leaders who recognise the need for stronger institutions and collective action. However, the dynamics of AU politics and the competing interests of member states add layers of complexity to the race.
Whether Odinga’s pan-Africanist platform will garner the requisite support remains to be seen. His campaign’s focus on collaboration, economic revitalisation, and conflict resolution positions him as a strong contender for the chairpersonship. Yet, as with any election of this scale, the final outcome will hinge on the alliances forged and the extent to which his message resonates with AU leaders.
In the coming weeks, Odinga’s ability to consolidate support across regions will be critical. His efforts in Southern Africa, coupled with the backing of the EAC, have laid a solid foundation for his candidacy. With the chairpersonship election just weeks away, the continent watches closely to see who will assume the mantle of leadership at the AU and guide Africa through its next chapter.
